In face of many EU countries going into a lockdown, this is my attempt to understand British approach to #COVID-19… /1
Also checkout: bit.ly/2IIsLhs
Also checkout: bit.ly/2IIsLhs
This curve represents a number of people that will require hospitalisation due to COVID-19 over time. Without any interventions, the number of people who do not have access to hospital beds is over one million and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 71. /2
Scenario 1:
On day 1 (around 500 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 140,000 people do not have access to hospitals when needed and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 710… (That’s two years of lockdown!) #FlattenTheCurve /3
On day 1 (around 500 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 140,000 people do not have access to hospitals when needed and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 710… (That’s two years of lockdown!) #FlattenTheCurve /3
Scenario 2:
On day 30 (just over 20,000 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 140,000 people do not have access to hospitals when needed, but the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 348… (Similar outcome, one year of lockdown) /4
On day 30 (just over 20,000 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 140,000 people do not have access to hospitals when needed, but the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 348… (Similar outcome, one year of lockdown) /4
Scenario 3:
On day 45 (over 150,000 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 524,000 people will not have access to hospitals when needed, and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 190… (Lockdown was introduced too late) /5
On day 45 (over 150,000 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 524,000 people will not have access to hospitals when needed, and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 190… (Lockdown was introduced too late) /5
Note: in all of these plots we assume that at this point, we can no longer eliminate the virus, there is no vaccine, and that a constant proportion of population (here 40%) will be infected at some point. /6
It would appear that extending the flat arm of the curve (a lockdown introduced too soon) considerably increases lockdown duration and does not substantially change the area under the curve above the capacity line (number of people without access to hospital beds when needed) /7
Obviously, there are many additional factors and parameters to consider and this is only a simplification... But maybe it is indeed not as simple as shutting everything down as quickly as possible…? /8
P.S. Early measures to limit exposure (social distancing, washing your hands, home office, etc) are still important to buy us some time to expand the capacity of the healthcare system in preparation for the peak… #WashYourHands /9
