Quick thread. The Nifty fell 31% in less than 40 trading sessions (under two months). This is a rare event. Putting things into perspective...
...the US had its worst fall since 1987, that's 33 years ago. And the US is among the largest and most liquid markets in the world. So something that happens twice in three decades counts as rare.
Markets fall all the time. Since 2010, we've had 10% falls almost every year. 2011 was bad. But we've not had a 31% fall in <40 trading sessions for a long time. Putting things into perspective again..
...the Nifty fell 50% after the tech bubble burst in 2000. The Nifty fell 60% after GFC in 2008/2009. But those falls were drawn out. This is 31% in <40 days. It's rare. Let's acknowledge that for a moment.
What happens next? Nobody knows. You can play out as many scenarios as you want. But there's no human being on the planet that can tell you with certainty where the Nifty will be a year, 5 years, 10 years out.
For example, the Nifty was at around 3,000 levels, point-to-point, from Dec 1992 to Dec 2002. 10 years. Sure it might have doubled/halved in the interim. But a 3% CAGR for 10yrs on the Nifty has happened.
Your SIP returns for 10yrs on an index fund right now might also look like shit. Check out @uptickr tweet for more.
So, what do you do? Should you buy stocks? yes *if you're ok with your entire capital getting completely wiped out*. By this logic, you should also buy when the Nifty hit 12,400 in Jan. (THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE).
To me, risk as the ability to sleep soundly when 100% of your portfolio falls to zero. If you think you can take that risk, please buy stocks today or tomorrow or whenever the fuck. (THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE).
Can stocks fall to zero? maybe. Can the Nifty fall to zero? Extremely unlikely. Now that you know that, make your decision.
Which stocks should I buy? I don't know. Seriously. There are some 3,000 stocks actively traded and some 5,000 stocks listed. There are index funds and ETFs. Go choose.
But here's the thing. Be clear why you're buying today. If you're buying purely because you think stocks have fallen, then know that stocks can fall even further down. Putting things into perspective...
...in the 2000 crash, the Nifty fell 20% in its first year, then another 20% in its second year, and another 7% in the third year. So yeah. Think about that.
Should I continue my SIP? I'm continuing my SIPs for sure. I have one index fund SIP, one midcap SIP, and one smallcap SIP. All my SIPs are currently in losses and I don't really care. I'm sleeping really well.
To sum it up: You define your own risk. You choose your own stock. It's your money so take an informed decision. If you trust free advice, know that free advice is exactly that - free. Fin.
This is the Nifty. 
