Thread by @lthomasnews

I am neither an epidemiologist nor public health official. I am, however, a concerned media member for a sport still pursuing live shows amid a global pandemic without following medical protocol.

Why my concern?

Here's what I believe with the corresponding evidence. 1/

CLAIM: Covid-19 is matter-of-factly deadlier than the flu for virtually all demographics.

SOURCE: propublica.org/article/this-c…

CLAIM: One of Covid-19's challenges is its capacity to overload healthcare systems even in non-lethal cases. This has a cascading effect, forcing hospitals and doctors to ration care even to those admitted for other medical ailments.

SOURCE: nytimes.com/2020/03/12/ups…

CLAIM: A compounding problem is the U.S. healthcare system's lack of life-saving and even routine medical resources including N95 masks, respirators and other supplies.

SOURCE: npr.org/sections/healt… 

propublica.org/article/this-c…

CLAIM: Part of the issue with the lack of supplies is the supply chain and how years of offshoring healthcare in the United States is now showing the problem with our supply chain.

SOURCE: buzzfeednews.com/article/olivia…

CLAIM: As has happened in nearly all countries with a Covid-19 outbreak, the medical staff treating patients ultimately get sick and require quarantine. If this happens when hospitals and resources are exhausted, many of those infected could die.

SOURCE: theverge.com/2020/3/5/21166…

CLAIM: The data varies across countries, but still shows the young are not the most vulnerable to Covid-19. Still, death rates exceed that of the flu. There is no vaccine. Even the young require hospitalization in unusually high amounts.

SOURCE: nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Moreover, the issue isn't merely about what happens to the young, but about how young people could infect others without taking proper precautionary action.

CLAIM: We don't have an accurate account of the dead yet. That will take time. Additionally, rates of survival across demographics vary by country and what kind of response that country took towards containment or detection/treatment. Not uniform.

SOURCE: reuters.com/article/us-hea…

CLAIM: We don't have more Covid-19 tests in the U.S. because of a failed CDC test and the unwillingness of the FDA to greenlight private labs using their own tests.

Also, even if tests are deployed, they take manpower and time to use each one.

SOURCE: washingtonpost.com/podcasts/post-…

CLAIM: No one really knows how long this could last, but months and months is possible. Covid-19 could also come back in the fall.

A vaccine likely won't be ready for a year, possibly two or more.

SOURCE:

CLAIM: The effect on the national and world economy of Covid-19 will be substantial, lating and require significant government intervention in kickstarting the economy as well as providing relief to particularly hard hit populations.

SOURCE: bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-…

This doesn't address other issues, such as the strain on healthcare workers with kids not in school or rural vs. urban hospital care or the decay from social distancing.

So, no, I'm not an epidemiologist. But my view is rooted in evidence. No reason why anyone else's can't be.