Profile picture
, 4 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
There is no science yet that widespread COVID-19 exposure will build herd immunity within a "tolerable" fatality rate. Without an adequate vaccine available, it is all merely speculation and political strategizing. As this helpful video explains:
if the percentage who are still vulnerable after vaccination or exposure is greater than the percentage required for herd immunity, then it becomes impossible to achieve herd immunity, even if 100% of the population is exposed or vaccinated.
unherd.com/thepost/can-we…
"You don’t have to be a superforecaster to forecast that if we get this wrong, many will die unnecessarily." @Dr_D_Robertson
duncanrobertson.com/2020/03/11/cor…
@threadreaderapp
with unroll please '
@Unrollme
' keyword.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MettaBhavana1 see all

Profile picture
Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year
@MettaBhavana1
Professor John Mathews, esteemed epidemiologist & honorary professor at the University of Melbourne,who was the deputy chief medical officer during SARS and pandemic influenza planning in 2003, said with regards to all this talk of "herd immunity" the devil was in the detail.
Trust #Metta, that is "epidemiologist speak" for, "We have no fucking idea, anything could happen, and probably will, it usually does; we will have to count the bodies afterwards and subtract them from the survivors, then make a tentative summary of what that all meant."
afr.com/policy/health-…
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year
@MettaBhavana1
'While true mortality of COVID-19 will take time to understand, data so far indicate the crude mortality ratio (number of reported deaths divided by reported cases) is 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (number of reported deaths divided number of infections) will be lower.'#WHO
Let's say 2.5% mortality then. Please tell me if my arithmetic is off. If a million Australians in the vulnerable cohort are infected, that is a death rate of up to 25,000.

Data: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Situation Report – 46
who.int/docs/default-s…
More realistically, if 217,000 of the older and sicker among us get it, (the same number of unvaccinated people who caught flu in 2019), 5425 will die.

And that is on top of the 430 or so who will die from flu anyway this year.

abc.net.au/news/2019-08-1…
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year
@MettaBhavana1
With Covid-19, the R0 [average number of people each infected person spreads the disease to...] is not well known (and depends on social factors), but Imperial College puts it between 1.5 and 3.5 and the WHO at between 1.4 and 2.5. Let’s take the highest estimate. 1.
If having the disease once makes you immune forever, then 100-(100/3.5)=71%; herd immunity would be achieved when 71% of the population has had it. 2.
Of course, that assumes perfect immunity. If — as with flu — that’s not the case, the maths is very different. In fact, if the percentage who are still vulnerable after vaccination or exposure is greater than the percentage required for herd immunity, then it becomes impossible
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Chris Carter
@scorp99cam
I am not an expert. I am making my best guesses of options USA can take to address the #COVIDー19 pandemic based on reading experts. Things will change fast and leaders need to move yesterday to avoid disaster scenario.
Starting with my two resources that helped me assemble my thoughts. First this explaining how flattening the curve helps
ms.mcmaster.ca/~bolker/misc/p…
My second source was this thread comparing UK strategy vs flattening the curve.
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
Stephen Barlow
@SteB777
1/5 The reason for Johnson's bizarre policy over #COVIDー19, is to deliberately infect most of the UK population with this pseudoscientific "herd immunity" idea. Johnson's government is planning to deliberately kill a huge amount of the UK population.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…
2/5 This is mass murder for neoliberal ideology. This is not a scientific idea. Herd immunity can't work at national level. The idea is obviously if the British population develop an immunity it will give us an economic advantage over countries without this immunity.
3/5 This lunatic government is aiming to create mass deaths and suffering for an ideological idea of making Britain some sort of global master race immune to #COVIDー19. They genuinely see us as a herd of livestock and are treating us like one.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Moritz Kuhn
@kuhnmo
@christianbaye13 & me have been thinking about the big differences in mortality rates so far during the corona outbreak in Europe. The differences in case-fatality rates are humongous. Italy has one of 6% while countries like Norway, Denmark & Germany have rates still close to 0.
Of course the rates will likely converge somewhat over time as the virus spreads and there are many effects in this. Division bias may play a role, as does the time since the outbreak.
However, we thought maybe there is something to learn in this in order to help to organize our lives in a way to minimize the risks for us and we pose to others. We picked up a striking data difference that @AndreasShrugged pointed out.
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Eunice Yoon
@onlyyoontv
#China’s National Health Commission said at @WHO briefing in Beijing this week no one is immune from #COVIDー19 since it is a new pathogen. Nationally, fatality rate is 3-4%. But China health officials earlier posted data on #coronavirus that might help when assessing your risk:
A team from #China’s CDC published research in a Chinese journal of epidemiology. The data, based on 70k patients, is till Feb 11 (so a little old) but it reveals trends. Fatality rate for elderly at 8-15%..
Those with compromised immune systems at higher risk. For heart disease, death rate is 10.5%. Men are dying from #coronavirus at almost twice the rate as women. Link to study here: chinaepi.icdc.cn/zhlxbx/ch/read…
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Roland Baker III
@RolandBakerIII
#COVID-19: It’s possible to get infected a 2nd time. People recovered by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart, and when they get it the 2nd time, the antibody makes it worse, and they die of sudden heart failure.
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197
I don't find this unexpected. We had similar results in the study of SARS. Challenge with the virus after vaccination actually made the resulting disease worse. One theory is this may be due to an overactive immune response due to a cytokine storm.
What I find really troubling is doctors in China had to report this anonymously to avoid communist censorship. We are not getting the whole story here. Keep in mind we don't yet know how many cases this involves and we'll have to wait for more case studies in other countries.
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
Joe Woerner
@jmwoerner
.@PhilMurphyNJ @GovMurphy let’s talk CDC science: Tetanus: (cdc.gov/tetanus/about/…) The CDC states“tetanus is different from other vaccine-preventable diseases because it does not spread from person to person.” Individual protection only. Individual choice. Simple.
CDC:”Public health experts cannot rely on herd immunity to protect people from pertussis(pt)since: pt spreads so easily, vaccine protection decreases over time, vaccines may not prevent colonization (carrying bacteria in your bodywithout getting sick) or spread of the bacteria.”
CDC reference here @LatusStacey @delbigtree @RobSchneider
Read 19 tweets

Trending hashtags

#HPVvaccine #COVID19 #CancelEverythingNow #Coronarivus #CoronaOutbreak #Angola #Polio #coronarvirus #SouthKorea #unethical #COVI19 #Coronavirus #outbreak #Covid19usa #immunization #COVIDー19 #CoronavirusOutbreak #Indonesia #SARS #HerdImmunity #Logic #coronarovirus #DRCongo #stratifiedlockdown #covid19

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!