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'While true mortality of COVID-19 will take time to understand, data so far indicate the crude mortality ratio (number of reported deaths divided by reported cases) is 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (number of reported deaths divided number of infections) will be lower.'#WHO
Let's say 2.5% mortality then. Please tell me if my arithmetic is off. If a million Australians in the vulnerable cohort are infected, that is a death rate of up to 25,000.

Data: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Situation Report – 46
who.int/docs/default-s…
More realistically, if 217,000 of the older and sicker among us get it, (the same number of unvaccinated people who caught flu in 2019), 5425 will die.

And that is on top of the 430 or so who will die from flu anyway this year.

abc.net.au/news/2019-08-1…
twitter.com/healthgovau
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More from @MettaBhavana1 see all

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Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year
@MettaBhavana1
Professor John Mathews, esteemed epidemiologist & honorary professor at the University of Melbourne,who was the deputy chief medical officer during SARS and pandemic influenza planning in 2003, said with regards to all this talk of "herd immunity" the devil was in the detail.
Trust #Metta, that is "epidemiologist speak" for, "We have no fucking idea, anything could happen, and probably will, it usually does; we will have to count the bodies afterwards and subtract them from the survivors, then make a tentative summary of what that all meant."
afr.com/policy/health-…
Read 7 tweets
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Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year
@MettaBhavana1
With Covid-19, the R0 [average number of people each infected person spreads the disease to...] is not well known (and depends on social factors), but Imperial College puts it between 1.5 and 3.5 and the WHO at between 1.4 and 2.5. Let’s take the highest estimate. 1.
If having the disease once makes you immune forever, then 100-(100/3.5)=71%; herd immunity would be achieved when 71% of the population has had it. 2.
Of course, that assumes perfect immunity. If — as with flu — that’s not the case, the maths is very different. In fact, if the percentage who are still vulnerable after vaccination or exposure is greater than the percentage required for herd immunity, then it becomes impossible
Read 6 tweets
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Metta Bhavana, Diarist Of The Plague Year
@MettaBhavana1
There is no science yet that widespread COVID-19 exposure will build herd immunity within a "tolerable" fatality rate. Without an adequate vaccine available, it is all merely speculation and political strategizing. As this helpful video explains:
if the percentage who are still vulnerable after vaccination or exposure is greater than the percentage required for herd immunity, then it becomes impossible to achieve herd immunity, even if 100% of the population is exposed or vaccinated.
unherd.com/thepost/can-we…
"You don’t have to be a superforecaster to forecast that if we get this wrong, many will die unnecessarily." @Dr_D_Robertson
duncanrobertson.com/2020/03/11/cor…
Read 4 tweets

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Patrycja Kozik
@patrycja_kozik
In face of many EU countries going into a lockdown, this is my attempt to understand British approach to #COVID-19… /1
Also checkout: bit.ly/2IIsLhs
This curve represents a number of people that will require hospitalisation due to COVID-19 over time. Without any interventions, the number of people who do not have access to hospital beds is over one million and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 71. /2
Scenario 1:
On day 1 (around 500 cases) we introduce a lockdown that reduces exposures 15x. 140,000 people do not have access to hospitals when needed and the end of “hospital bed crisis” comes on day 710… (That’s two years of lockdown!) #FlattenTheCurve /3
Read 9 tweets
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Niall Conroy
@NICU_doc_salone
In trying to make sense of what might seem like confusing or inconsistent decisions around #COVIDー19 interventions at the population level it might be helpful to look at the different phases of a pandemic and what type of control measures happen during each phase. This is....
....the Australian pandemic plan. It’s publicly available. Ireland will have a VERY similar plan, though the names of the phases might be different. PHASE 1: Preparedness; This is when planning happens. It’s ongoing, with meetings, desktop exercises and pressure testing.....
.....PHASE 2: Standby; This phase kicks in when there’s sustained transmission overseas. When China saw the situation get bad, most countries stepped into this phase. It’s enhanced level of preparation. Lots of banal work goes on behind the scenes, from making sure local plans...
Read 19 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary, 🕯#FBPE
@fascinatorfun
#COVIDー19
This makes several useful points about cohort. Are we comparing apples with apples? Are the cohort selection criteria the same from state to state and country to country.

The answer is clearly NO regarding country to country.

Something is going badly wrong in USA
In the U.K. the Dept of Health are correctly imposing a nationally coherent strategy with common surveillance software.

As is evident from the embedded thread, in the USA they cannot say with any certainty how many people have been tested in each state and county.
So who knows what meaning to attach to positive tests?

Firstly. Why would the CDC or states or counties seek to conceal the number of tests being carried out?

I can’t think of a good scientific reason.

Political ones maybe..but not good for citizens.
Read 5 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
I will start today's thread on #COVID in Iran, following up from yesterday's #irancorona
DISCLAIMER:

The GOOD
- Government in a complete reversal taken #COVID seriously
- As per contacts, many stay indoors if they can

The BAD:
- Explosion of cases in new cities
- Tehran seems to be next
- Extreme shortage of basic hygiene supplies
- Street collapses continue
#irancorona
Read 37 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
I gathered some alarming information on the rise of #COVID in Iran in this thread. I can see that it has been read by many hence increases my responsibility on what I share now.
As I stated before:

- I am not a trained reporter or journalist
- I am not based in Iran
- Not affiliated with any poilitical group, for or against the government
- Most of my information comes from the internet with occasional conversations with people in Iran
Today I shall try to gather information which I will share in the thread below.
Read 40 tweets
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COVID19
@V2019N
WHO China joint mission #COVIDー19
COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee.

who.int/docs/default-s…
Not major drivers of transmission:
-airborne spread not been reported
(can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities)
-fecal shedding demonstrated from some patients, & viable virus identified in limited # case reports.
Household transmission studies underway, prelim studies ongoing in Guangdong est secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.
As COVID-19 is a newly identified pathogen, no known pre-existing immunity in humans. Everyone is assumed to be susceptible
Read 13 tweets

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