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Italy has twice the number of doctors per capita as the UK.
nationmaster.com/country-info/s…
Italy has twice the number of critical care beds per capita of the UK.
statista.com/chart/21105/nu…
Italy went from life as reasonably normal to a total healthcare breakdown in two weeks. Two weeks.
Every extra day that passes without draconian social distancing, 25-30% more people get infected. Perhaps more.

Meanwhile, China is seeing no new cases in Hubei Province outside of Wuhan city for the 10th consecutive day.
theguardian.com/world/live/202…
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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡, 🇬🇧 🔜 🇪🇺
@uk_domain_names
Austria has closed schools and bars and cinemas and restaurants and cafes and museums and parks and playgrounds. You're only allowed to go out with immediate family members. Only *essential* contact with anyone outside your family. Police enforcing the ban on the streets.
Meanwhile our own government's response can be summed up as...
"Wash your hands for 20 seconds. If you have a cough or a fever stay home for 7 days - we trust you! Don't call 111 unless you're ill for more than a week or feel you're dying. We won't test suspect cases habitually."
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡, 🇬🇧 🔜 🇪🇺
@uk_domain_names
Let's say that we can't avert the coronavirus, but draconian social isolation (close schools, pubs, cinemas etc.) can slow it, as proven in other countries. Here's what happens after 30 days if you slow the daily growth rate from 25% to 15%...
Now, you could argue 15% is a pessimistic scenario. After all, China and South Korea both brought growth rates down to almost nothing.

But maybe more people disobey the rules here. Maybe we're less strict than them. The difference is stark even if you *still* have 15% growth!
The virus doesn't spread by magic. It can't teleport from person to person. It needs contact.

- That can be literal contact i.e. hugs & handshakes.
- It can be close transmission (sneezing etc.)
- It can be transmission from contaminated surfaces.

But something has to happen.
Read 5 tweets
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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡, 🇬🇧 🔜 🇪🇺
@uk_domain_names
You can't both bring in draconian self isolation rules and not bring them in. That particular Venn diagram has no intersection.

Other countries are closing schools, cinemas, pubs, restaurants, cafes, playgrounds, parks, etc. Anywhere and everywhere that people can gather.
We most evidently are not.

Therefore the only possible conclusion is that our government is ignoring the combined expertise of all the rest of the world.

It makes not a jot of difference whether they looked at it and ignored it, or just ignored it - the result will be the same.
Coronavirus will spread through the UK population much faster than other countries. We've been behind the curve of some of the worst afflicted, but we'll overtake them because we're not putting measures in NOW.

Tomorrow there will be 25%+ more cases.

The day after 25%+ more.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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GRB (Giri)
@epigiri
The number of #COVID19 infections in countries that're not testing extensively might be much higher. There are 2 main strategies

Option.1: Test all suspected & quarantine ( #SKorea)
Option.2: Strict quarantine & Contact tracing. (#Singapore & #HK) 1ofn
The #UK is following neither of these options. #India has a combination of two but partial implementation. As a result, both these countries will have more infections, only without confirmation. While #UK has stated that they aim to have herd immunity. #India hasn't said so. 2ofn
Managing #CovidUK is major #natural experiment that a country, that too a developed one is trying. I would argue that it is #unethical to continue this strategy. Aim of #Publichealth is to prevent deaths and minimise morbidity. The current strategy in #UK defies this goal. 3ofn
Read 12 tweets
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Ingrid H. Kvangraven
@ingridharvold
Highly uneven impacts and responses to #Corona reveal important political economy differences across the world.

The US & UK responses particularly expose the weaknesses of these economies as well as the governments' incapacity - and will - to tackle systemic societal issues.
1/n
There's been a lot of great reporting on the virus (along w/lots of crap), but this one here by Thomas Pueyo is still one of my fave. It shows very clearly why it's so important to put restrictions in place *early* to limit impact on the population. 2/n
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
The impact depends heavily on the government's ability (and will) to respond promptly, on the health system of course, as well as on how society is organized more generally. With decades of austerity in many countries, a lot of health systems and societies will struggle. 3/n
Read 31 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
A really heartbreaking sight. The sacrifices from health workers in China have been immense.
This is the context of that video, reportedly related to the death of hospital director Liu Zhiming.
This is making the rounds, claiming to be Chinese escaping the country into Vietnam. I'm almost certain that it is misrepresented, and that this is not true.
Read 2899 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If containment fails, and this projection comes true, the hardships that the world would experience during the onset of the first coronavirus pandemic would be hard to comprehended through our current eyes. A first for the modern world.
That’s further out, but if COVID-19 does break through to influenza scale, the benefit would be in a substantial population of immunity & antibodies. Those prospects are now where China is focusing. Antibody donation could improve outcomes; that’s moving from secondary priority.
The best outcome of a worst case scenario would be herd immunity. But, millions would die, medical infrastructure would be overwhelmed at even a fraction of the early generational spread, & the world would be on pause. Transfusion is not the golden ticket; you need a lot of infra
Read 2852 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Unsurprisingly, more information was withheld by the Chinese government. COVID-19 had reached Guangdong by January 4th. Wuhan's lockdown only began on the 23rd. This is a probelm far bigger than Hubei and China.
Alternate reality: Theranos Ends Pandemic
It's so sad to read these stories of China's state of unrest. Trust is degraded. This is not a society that will return to normal with a snap of fingers and bans lifted. China is damaged, could be for years, & we're not even near the end of this epidemic.
Read 2850 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If you're looking for someone compromised on China, you have this theater and its 'unbreakable friendship.' news.yahoo.com/china-declines…
Xi's latest appearance on a call with Trump this morning is a different story, merely parroting the "People's War" language that state media has orchestrated in recent days
This question has only deepened for Chinese and the world in recent days, with the tragedy only growing day after day, and Wuhan's whistleblower now fallen: where is Xi Jinping? time.com/5778994/corona…
Read 2810 tweets

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