Thread by @epigiri

The number of #COVID19 infections in countries that're not testing extensively might be much higher. There are 2 main strategies

Option.1: Test all suspected & quarantine ( #SKorea)
Option.2: Strict quarantine & Contact tracing. (#Singapore & #HK) 1ofn

The #UK is following neither of these options. #India has a combination of two but partial implementation. As a result, both these countries will have more infections, only without confirmation. While #UK has stated that they aim to have herd immunity. #India hasn't said so. 2ofn

Managing #CovidUK is major #natural experiment that a country, that too a developed one is trying. I would argue that it is #unethical to continue this strategy. Aim of #Publichealth is to prevent deaths and minimise morbidity. The current strategy in #UK defies this goal. 3ofn

#covidindia is the classical prototype of efficient management of perceptions. No tests are done from the community even with symptoms but without a history of travel. If you do not test, how do you know whether #covid infections are transmitted? You don't. 4ofn

At the least, Taxi drivers who would have carried infected passengers, tourist guides, their family members through them would have had infections. But based on the current criteria, they cannot be tested even if they have symptoms. Same is true if you get from other states. 5ofn

The #SocialDistancing isn't in the culture & is an impossible option. Markets, parks, marriages are full house, trains are full. So, the infection is spreading among the citizens. No tests are done, no diagnosis of #COVID19. We don't know the actual numbers. #COVID19india 6ofn

In effect, while #UK says that it is hoping for herd immunity, they are testing much higher than what #India is testing. The UK has tested ~6 times higher (29,764 on Mar 12) compared to India (5,255, Mar 15). This is because they're testing contacts also (unlike #India) 7ofn

Reluctance to test the contacts is unethical and worsens problems induced by inequities. No one knows how many poor people have the disease and what proportion of the elderly in their households have complications after infection. They cannot afford ICU or ventilators. 8ofn

So, effectively there is no difference in the strategies by #India & #UK. The UK does a better job of explicitly stating that they do not believe in doing any other measures. They also have a relatively stronger healthcare system that can cater to complications of #COVIDー19 9ofn

#US is a different trajectory. They have started late but are making every effort to provide rapid testing kits to everyone who wants it. They also have the world's highest number of critical care beds per 100k inhabitants. Therefore, their casualties won't be higher. 10 ofn

The summary is:- Out of 2 options available, first is a tough one. However, the second option is still a viable & effective strategy. Singapore has lots of lessons to offer. It is not that difficult to change the course of action now. Or else, its another natural experiment. nofn

@threadreaderapp unroll