Let's say that we can't avert the coronavirus, but draconian social isolation (close schools, pubs, cinemas etc.) can slow it, as proven in other countries. Here's what happens after 30 days if you slow the daily growth rate from 25% to 15%... 
Now, you could argue 15% is a pessimistic scenario. After all, China and South Korea both brought growth rates down to almost nothing.
But maybe more people disobey the rules here. Maybe we're less strict than them. The difference is stark even if you *still* have 15% growth!
But maybe more people disobey the rules here. Maybe we're less strict than them. The difference is stark even if you *still* have 15% growth!
The virus doesn't spread by magic. It can't teleport from person to person. It needs contact.
- That can be literal contact i.e. hugs & handshakes.
- It can be close transmission (sneezing etc.)
- It can be transmission from contaminated surfaces.
But something has to happen.
- That can be literal contact i.e. hugs & handshakes.
- It can be close transmission (sneezing etc.)
- It can be transmission from contaminated surfaces.
But something has to happen.
If you create a situation in which:
- Nobody meets anyone for hugs or handshakes
- Nobody is close enough to anyone else to infect them by sneezing
- Nobody is out and about catching the virus from contaminated surfaces
Then the virus stops. So does the economy.
- Nobody meets anyone for hugs or handshakes
- Nobody is close enough to anyone else to infect them by sneezing
- Nobody is out and about catching the virus from contaminated surfaces
Then the virus stops. So does the economy.
That's the tradeoff chosen by every other country. Already, however, we are seeing that China is cautiously ramping its economy back up again while keeping any resurgence of the virus in check. Nearly all their deaths happened at the beginning. Now it's a tiny number.
