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Hey @number10gov @MattHancock
You know what would help?
FUND THEM
(Respirators are no use w/o the needed staff)
(Staff deserve a crisis bonus)
(Covid-19 hospitals)
(Protection equipment)
Also
7.9m hospitalised (20% of cases) / 12 (months) / 4 (5% of cases)
➡️164k ICU beds needed
Guys you currently have roughly 800 available.
Oh wait let’s consider a 20 days in ICU average (I took 30 days here, which isn’t the current average)
Phew! Only (roughly) 110,000 ICUs beds needed!
(137 times the current capacity).
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More from @StillDelvingH see all

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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Following Macron’s speech yesterday, I got a text this morning, with a link to govt’s website detailing what we can and can’t do.
✅Run necessary errands/go to work if we can’t work from home/health-related travel/sport (alone).
❌ Any gathering/other travel.
We need to carry an authorisation (piece of paper where we explain why we left home, dated and signed -can be downloaded/printed or copied manually. Also in shops with a printer).
€38 to €135 fine if the rules ain’t respected.
Seems to be working:,massive change since yesterday
A lot less people in the streets and people are now queuing 2 meters away from each other. Entering 1 by 1 in the small shops (bakery).
We French people.
Read 3 tweets
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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
”Model that motivated France lockdown shows that without preventive measures, #COVID19 death toll could be as high as 300k-500k”
Note: that comes from a *British* epidemiologist (Imperial’s college Neil Ferguson)
@number10gov @MattHancock you might want to talk to him?
Seriously I’d be interested to hear what @neil_ferguson has to say about delays and the NHS ability to cope.
(I would be really relieved to be proved wrong about this 👇I personally don’t see why infection rate would slow down by itself? But surely please I’m wrong this curve will autoflatten right?)
Read 3 tweets
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Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Hello @number10gov maths called and asked when exactly you intend to do something?
Hint on what might be effective 👇
(Guys seriously you’re like a 110k ICU beds short -7.9m hospitalised in 12 months, 5% in ICU for 20 days) -give yourself as much time as you can?)
Also I don’t get these assumptions
How is 1 out of 4 hospitalised in ICU (20% of total cases in hospital / 5% cases in ICU for an average 20 days) translates as “only” 531k deaths? When almost 2m ppl would need ICU?
(@neil_ferguson what did I miss?)
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Harlan Krumholz
@hmkyale
Participating in an intern'l webinar with the Chinese Cardiology Association to discuss lessons learned with #COVID-19. Learning from our colleagues. Helping us to prepare. Teamwork. @ACCinTouch #ACCIntl All welcome. From 8-10 EDT. Today March 18.heartm.docbook.com.cn/#/meeting_noti… #COVID19
@ACCinTouch Chinese colleagues making strong point about the asymptomatic transmission. Bin Cao emphasizing the importance of using the N95 masks. For healthcare workers. [Implication: importance for us to solve the shortage problem - he is giving a warning; talking about risk to HCWs.]
@ACCinTouch Chinese colleagues sharing clinical features of #COVID19; one distinctive thing is that dry cough common; but little difference in presentation with flu. In Wuhan experience… 12% had acute cardiac injury. 7% acute kidney injury.
Read 21 tweets
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T Lloyd
@T_Lloyd
Putting my sociologist hat on. For those who are tired of the science, the numbers, and the really big words; I wanna explain this in layman's term.

The problem is not so much the virus, the problem is US (double entendre)
The U.S. has a completely different cultural system than China. We are not as community-focused, family oriented, or obedient. We're not discussing if that's good or bad, only talking about WHAT IS.

What we lack in those 3 areas directly contributes to the spread of #COVIDー19
Americans don't know HOW to self-quarantine because those 3 factors are not top of mind. We don't inherently think about our neighbors. A lot of us don't even know their names.

We're not thinking about elders b/c we weren't taught that taking care of them was OUR responsibility.
Read 13 tweets
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巴丢草 Badiucao
@badiucao
landed in Melbourne
sore throat，sneezing and coughing on place
not sure fever
passengers from Italy sits right beside me…
the whole plan has coughing sound through the flight
I am doing the right thing to report myself to a airport medic now
I will do a test of #COVIDー19
2/ taken to a room for temperature test no fever
went through a question list 4 symptom history，if i met anyone from high risk country China italy
i told them i was in Prague 4 film festival & met many people around world.
but seems they are about letting me go.
3/ airport medicals are calling authority to ask about my measurement，go home or stay for test maybe…
seems phones got difficulty to go through…
personally i wish to stay and have test asap.
but i need to respect their decision.
#COVID2019
Read 33 tweets
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Alex Wellstead
@AlexWellstead
This is an incredibly inaccurate headline and article.

Bottom line: the Canadian government - led by Prime Minister @JustinTrudeau - has been acting to protect Canadians since the very beginning of #COVIDー19.

Here's a bit of a timeline... 1/
When the disease became a real concern for Canadians abroad, the government acted to get hundreds of Canadians home safely. 2/
rcinet.ca/en/2020/01/29/…
During that time, Canada's top public health official, Dr. Tam, (@CPHO_Canada) and the Minister of Health, @PattyHajdu, began sharing with Canadians the best public health practices and measures to follow.

And they still are. 3/
theprogress.com/news/heres-wha…
Read 11 tweets
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Ameya Kulkarni, MD
@ameykulkarnimd
Lots of talk about the expected surge in ICU and hosp beds with #COVID. I’ve been hearing about reducing elective case burden (great thread from @ajaykirtane about that). We should also be rethinking our hospital approach to conditions that will continue in the covid era 1/n
Most obvious is with #STEMI care. If your hospital doesn’t have an ED bypass protocol for stemis - probably a good time to develop one. Ours at @VHC_Hospital has 1 min pitstop in ed w ems txp to cath lab - less pt exposure time to ED and less burden on ED resources 2/n
Also with #STEMI care - No icu for stable pts w normal EF should be standard. For most of these pts ICU is not necc and creates unneeded exposure for pt and occupies much needed ICU beds. (I think @agtruesdell had a great thread on this a while back) 3/n
Read 11 tweets

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