Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
”Model that motivated France lockdown shows that without preventive measures, #COVID19 death toll could be as high as 300k-500k”
Note: that comes from a *British* epidemiologist (Imperial’s college Neil Ferguson)
@number10gov @MattHancock you might want to talk to him?
Seriously I’d be interested to hear what @neil_ferguson has to say about delays and the NHS ability to cope.
(I would be really relieved to be proved wrong about this 👇I personally don’t see why infection rate would slow down by itself? But surely please I’m wrong this curve will autoflatten right?)
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Facts Central

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#COVID19

More from @StillDelvingH see all

Profile picture
Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Following Macron’s speech yesterday, I got a text this morning, with a link to govt’s website detailing what we can and can’t do.
✅Run necessary errands/go to work if we can’t work from home/health-related travel/sport (alone).
❌ Any gathering/other travel.
We need to carry an authorisation (piece of paper where we explain why we left home, dated and signed -can be downloaded/printed or copied manually. Also in shops with a printer).
€38 to €135 fine if the rules ain’t respected.
Seems to be working:,massive change since yesterday
A lot less people in the streets and people are now queuing 2 meters away from each other. Entering 1 by 1 in the small shops (bakery).
We French people.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Hey @number10gov @MattHancock
You know what would help?
FUND THEM
(Respirators are no use w/o the needed staff)
(Staff deserve a crisis bonus)
(Covid-19 hospitals)
(Protection equipment)
Also
7.9m hospitalised (20% of cases) / 12 (months) / 4 (5% of cases)
➡️164k ICU beds needed
Guys you currently have roughly 800 available.
Oh wait let’s consider a 20 days in ICU average (I took 30 days here, which isn’t the current average)
Phew! Only (roughly) 110,000 ICUs beds needed!
(137 times the current capacity).
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Facts Central
@StillDelvingH
Hello @number10gov maths called and asked when exactly you intend to do something?
Hint on what might be effective 👇
(Guys seriously you’re like a 110k ICU beds short -7.9m hospitalised in 12 months, 5% in ICU for 20 days) -give yourself as much time as you can?)
Also I don’t get these assumptions
How is 1 out of 4 hospitalised in ICU (20% of total cases in hospital / 5% cases in ICU for an average 20 days) translates as “only” 531k deaths? When almost 2m ppl would need ICU?
(@neil_ferguson what did I miss?)
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
CLLynch
@lynchauthor
This is the kind of attitude that gets people killed.

Here is how I explained it to my nine year old:

Ebola and other plagues are usually easy to catch and stop. They are deadly, but that very deadliness makes them stand out. We spot them. We stop them.

#COVID is different.
#Covid ‘s mildness is the most dangerous aspect of it.

Many people who catch it don’t even experience symptoms.

Children, who cough on everything and never wash their hands CARRY IT WITHOUT SYMPTOMS.

When symptoms do show, they come two weeks later. Two WEEKS.
That means that for every sick person we see and test and hospitalize, there are probably a hundred people walking around feeling just fine, infecting other people who feel just fine, who infect OTHER people who feel JUST FINE.

Then two weeks later... KABOOM
Read 24 tweets
Profile picture
CEDR Digital Corps
@CEDRdigital
1) #Coronavirus UPDATE & Resources
Mar 10th 9PM EST
The🌎stats:
-118,745 =112 Countries & China
-4,284 have died🌎
-65,740 have recovered🌎
-80,954 Cases in 🇨🇳
-10,149 #Italy
-8,042 #Iran
-7,513 #SouthKorea
-1,784 #France
#COVID19seattle #NA #CA #MA #CT
#US #COVIDー19 Stats 👇🏾
2) #US #COVID19 Update
March 10th 9PM EST
972 #Coronavirus cases
267 in #Washington
36 states & DC have confirmed cases
234 new cases
15 have recovered
28 have died: #WA #CA #FL #NJ
👀Community Prep Resources 👇🏾
#CoronavirusUSA #COVID19US
#Seattle #Houston #TX #NewJersey #NY
3) Here’s our last 2 Topic Threads:
-Personal protection: bit.ly/39uBwY9
-Understanding Community Spread: bit.ly/38DUYRg
-Here's a great graphic for teens on:
How People Get & Spread The #Coronavirus #COVID19

#SD #NE #NH #RI #VT #MA
geeksaresexy.net/2020/03/05/how…
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Lina Greek
@Linagreek
*Θρεντ με αλήθειες και μύθους για τον #COVIDー19 απ την επίσημη ιστοσελίδα του WHO: who.int/emergencies/di…
1. Kρύος καιρός και χιόνι ΔΕΝ σκοτώνουν τον νέο κοροναϊό.
2. Τo ζεστό μπάνιο δεν εμποδίζει τη νέα ασθένεια του κοροναϊού.
3.Ο νέος κοροναϊός δεν μπορεί να μεταδοθεί μέσω προϊόντων που κατασκευάζονται στην Κίνα ή σε οποιαδήποτε χώρα που αναφέρει περιπτώσεις #COVIDー19.
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
François Heisbourg
@FHeisbourg
A back-of-the-enveloppe thread on the spread of #COVIDー19:

1) HUBEI province (ca 60 million people) has had close to 3000 deaths. It still has an active caseload of ca 20 K patients & some 130 new cases a day, & ca 30 daily deaths. So I expect up to 3500 deaths, assuming...1/9
...a winding down of the epidemic there by end March. If,stress IF, the rest of the world became like Hubei (0.8%of world population), the death toll could be of ca 400 K with a cumulative number of cases of ca 8 million.This possibly sets the outer bounds of a Covid pandemic 2/n
Of course, active measures in the world may prevent Hubei-scale outbreaks so this is unlikely to happen (conversely, late but tough measures in Hubei have also limited Covid's spread in that province).

2) GOOD NEWS though in rest of mainland China ( minus Hubei, HK,Macau): 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Chiu
@cychiu98
Hi all, we submitted the #COVIDー19 genome sequence from the viral strain linked to the #GrandPrincess cruise ship off coast of San Francisco to #GISAID. Phylogenetic analysis shows that it clusters with the outbreak clade circulating in Washington State. @UCSF #coronavirus
Please note that this finding does NOT prove that the virus was transmitted from Washington State to California, or vice-versa. There are other scenarios possible, such as separate introductions from outside of the US, that are compatible with the phylogenetic grouping.
Phylogenetic map of the #COVIDー19 Washington State cluster showing the #GrandPrincess cruise ship strain from a patient in California. @UCSF #coronavirus courtesy of
@trvrb and the @nextstrain team.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
...to San Francisco. apnews.com/cc77e92054c495…
2. Roads in and out of #Wuhan (even small side roads) being barricaded with piles of dirt/rocks to block all traffic in or out.
3. "Ye shall not eat any thing with the blood: neither shall ye use enchantment, nor observe times. Ye shall not .. print any marks upon you: I am the LORD. Do not prostitute thy daughter, to cause her to be a whore; lest the land fall to whoredom"..."apnews.com/d59f43a911996a…
Read 279 tweets

Trending hashtags

#FakeNews #YemeniArmy #Dhamar #SaudiArabia #YemenCantWait #coronavirus #YemenHolocaust #KSA #FuE #SouthKorea #Canada #Syria #US #NewRockelle #Najran #Maryland #BreakingNews #MontgomeryCountyMD #GISAID #Kündigungsschutz #USA #Americans #Hoarder #العدوان_يقصف_مدرسة_بسعوان #Queens

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!