Second day of confinement at home. I have to say something about the Spanish situation (thread):
1) A confinement where people can go to work and public transportation is full of people due to a lower frequency of trains is totally useless to stop #covid19ESP
1) A confinement where people can go to work and public transportation is full of people due to a lower frequency of trains is totally useless to stop #covid19ESP
2) It is now clear to me that asymptomatic infections are the majority. Best evidences are the the Diamond Princess cruise ship and Vo’ Euganeo (Italy) where ALL people were tested for #COVID19.
3) Diamond Princess cruise: tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard confirmed that 634 (17%) had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. That is 51%. Of all the infected, 0,91% died (all >70 years old) sciencenews.org/article/corona…
4) Vo’ Euganeo (Italy): the entire population (3.000 residents approx) was tested. Again, more than 50% of the positives were asymptomatic repubblica.it/salute/medicin…
5) which fits with a recent paper in @ScienceMagazine
6) In addition, the excellent work done in #SouthKorea with massive testing supports previous numbers and adds more relevant information about the distribution of the asymptomatic population
7) Based on these numbers I can only see two scenarios for #Spain: (a) we either close and stop the f.....g country for 2-3 weeks, and that means, absolutely everything except the food chain and the health system
8) or (b) we put all the efforts to help, protect and isolate the elderly, and let the rest of the population to move freely. The latter is basically what we are mostly doing, but without protecting our main population at risk
