1/ In 2016, when explaining to some the minimal rationale for voting for @HillaryClinton, I would say: "With Clinton, we can count on there being a Republic in 2020. With Trump, I'm not so sure." I would then stress that I was not being hyperbolic. Here's how we lose it:
2/ Firstly, you need to get into the predictable mind of
@realDonaldTrump. He has only one, singular concern: What's in it for me? That's it. Just think about the best possible PR angle for him, and that's the path he'll pursue. Not results, but sales. Very Hollywood.
@realDonaldTrump. He has only one, singular concern: What's in it for me? That's it. Just think about the best possible PR angle for him, and that's the path he'll pursue. Not results, but sales. Very Hollywood.
3/ That's said, we need to accept a few facts. A) Donald Trump now has a singular focus. It's not "how do I help the American people." It is "how can I make this pandemic work in my favor." Well, putting on our malignant narcissist cap, here's how he does that.
4/ We're already seeing some GOP led states pushing back the Democratic primary. I don't doubt the sincerity of their concern (yet), but I predict Trump is already hard at work getting GOP Governors to drag their feet on preparing contingency voting plans for November 2020.
5/ Come November, it is quite likely that this novel coronavirus will be making a comeback. Whether or not we are prepared for it, Trump will likely use it as a reason to try and postpone the Presidential election. So, how would that go over?
6/ We've already seen how eager Trump's @gop lapdogs are to enable even his most bizarre, and Constitutionally dangerous behavior. In this case, expect Dem Governors and *maybe* moderate GOP Governors to ignore him and hold elections as planned (even if using contingency plans).
7/ Many states' Govs, however (e.g., OK, MS, AL, WV, etc.), will fall in line and justify an indefinite postponement of the 2020 Presidential election - going so far as to invoke the #2A and call in their National Guard to enforce the non-election.
8/ The majority of states will hold the election as planned.
@JoeBiden will win. With the holdout states digging their heels in deeper, we will stand on the precipice of a de facto succession.
@JoeBiden will win. With the holdout states digging their heels in deeper, we will stand on the precipice of a de facto succession.
9/ If you think Trump wouldn't revel in such a situation, consider what is at stake: He would no longer have the #USDOJ at his beck and call to protect him from his very real personal legal liability. There would be countless civil and criminal charges levied against him.
10/ And when has he ever graciously accepted defeat? He is incapable of it. He is hard-wired to behave like a toddler, who would rather destroy his toy rather than to ever give it up. So what, then, would be the long-term implication.
11/ It will ultimately come down to the Joint Chiefs. The national military leaders. Will they, ultimately, fulfill their oath to The United States Constitution? Or will they fold under their fealty of duty to #DonTheCon? I very much believe they will choose the former. But...
12/ It will be messy. The National Guard units in the holdout states will likely splinter, with a large faction joining with other heavily armed Trumpkins in a spattering of mostly rural firefights and standoffs. Ultimately, the US military will prevail.
13/ But we will likely fall under military rule - for as long as it takes for a transition of power to occur, back into the hands of a Civilian government.
14/ And that, my friends, is my prediction on how the Donald Trump presidency will end. Crazy? Absolutely... But like I said: NOTHING. IS. HYPERBOLE. WITH. THIS. ASSHOLE.
