A few notes on the economic situation this morning. First, market action overnight was weird. Interest rates up significantly, as if investors believed effective stimulus was coming — but stock futures way down, as if they believed the opposite. Wut? 1/
Mnuchin warns of 20% unemployment. That would require something like a 30% fall in GDP, in which case proposed stimulus wildly inadequate. On the other hand, he may have just invented a number out of thin air, with no understanding of what it means 2/ cnbc.com/2020/03/18/mnu…
The voodoo kids are still voodooing. In the past, Kudlow was always part of this team. Has anyone seen him lately? 3/
Speculation: I wonder how much Trump's inability to admit error is hurting things now. Investors seemed relieved that he was finally showing hints of realism about the coronacrisis, but then he undercut that with ludicrous gaslighting 4/ nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/…
Federal resources still sitting on the sidelines. This is highly reminiscent of Katrina, when reporters saw military units doing calisthenics while New Orleans drowned 5/ nytimes.com/2020/03/17/us/…
Finally, estimates of short-run damage just keep escalating. 6/ cnbc.com/2020/03/18/us-…
