Everyone is saying we’ve hit peak flying, and conferences will move online. I think this will proves to be wrong.
Data Centres put out the same carbon emissions as the aviation industry, roughly 2% of global total. But if everyone gets used to remote working you could see this increasing dramatically. Not hard to see the use of Zoom etc increasing 10-1000 times.
And we’ll be using more and more bandwidth. Videos with 2-10 people will be common. Lots and lots of bandwidth. Video is not text. Much more intensive user of the internet. So doubling the need for data centres seems very conservative. Could easily be 10X.
And so 10X the carbon emissions. Sure, energy use will be optimised and many data centres could probably be 5-40% more efficient. But when bandwidth use is growing exponentially total demand will grow dramatically.
But, people will get used to high quality video meetings and will start to wonder why they spend hours a day schlepping into the office. Unless it is for something I cannot do as well online, why the hell would I waste my time?
Just like Amazon Prime members buy 3X what non Prime members do, en masse we will realise much of the time, going to the office is pointless, and unnecessary. So.....
We will stop doing it. Offices have a future but not for what most people use them for now. When we want or need human interaction, in particular for groups, in many cases the office will remain the best place for that. But I’d suggest that is 20-40% of our working week.
However, a really well run offline conference can be 10X better than an online one. So much more to a great conference than watching panels etc. So flying to a good conference has a very high ROI. Schlepping to the office 5 days a week a very low ROI.
So, where we will reduce travelling will not be by plane, but by train, and car, and tube. I.e Commuting. About the most useless habit mankind has ever developed. That is the carbon emitting practice we must kill. Not flying to conferences.
Quite what happens when we realise data centres and the internet are the real carbon menace, I do not know. Maybe, get on more planes?
@threadreaderapp unroll
A follow up - just been pointed at this - Dirty Streaming: The Internet's Big Secret, Dirty Streaming: The Internet's Big Secret: bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod… via @bbciplayer
