Thread by @atatimelikethis

🗯️1/10
Many know UKGov for 2 months had a "Herd Immunity" [HI] plan for #Covid_19. now changed.

This plan was bad science, and NOT due to modelling.

The result, even with the change of strategy will be ~500,000 needless deaths.

I'm proposing now a theory of how it happened.

🗯️2/10
There's sufficient evidence that

1. UK Gov & advisors misunderstood viral behaviour
2. It reached for flu pandemic] choosing an ideological "survival of the fittest" solution
3. It ignored details of the plan, particularly warnings about viruses unable to [HI]

🗯️3/10
4. It failed or chose not to consult experts in the field
5. And deliberately sabotaged containment procedures in order to maximise exposure
6. It also failed to create the communication and NHS preparedness plans - speculation - because it thought they wouldn't be needed.

🗯️4/10
7. The procedures say that such a departure from established plans needed to be signed off by
PM, Health Sec, Scientific Advisors with Cabinet.
8. Presumably, someone led this - who otherwise who NOT follow established pandemic response plans?
Not ask epidemiologists?

🗯️5/10
9. I believe the decision not to consult experts was made at the highest level, and that it was uninformed. That is because I rule out incompetence and other factors.

Regardless for 2 months UKGov pursued a strategy to maximise UK infection: Jan 9th to March 12th

🗯️6/10
10. Further reasons for top-down leadership
Confidence in strategy defence
No Airport Containment
No prepared communications warnings TV, fliers, press.
Spokespeople defence on News programmes
The backing of non-science by the CMO
Celebration of Britain being 'independent'

🗯️7/10
Case studies on Group Think:
Challenger Shuttle Disaster
Bay of Pigs Invasion
Climate Change Denial
Rwanda, Guatemala

If you know them, this is painfully familiar.
Ideologically led death

Intellectual Arrogance + Risks Ignored + Contempt for Institutions = Death

🗯️8/10

This leaves a problem any psychologist can describe.
Decisions can be bad by accident, poor data, or choice

People who make bad decisions by choice, continue to make bad choices.

And the people who made those decisions are still in power and planning for LESS oversight

🗯️9/10

Is there a limit for deaths from ideology?
1000?
10000?
more?
Is it Democracy to allow killers to make more bad decisions?

To misquote, "I didn't see mass murder on the ballot sheet"

A Crisis Government is needed.
Non-partisan - a true War Cabinet
With Epidemiologists.

🗯️10/10

The main thread completes here.
I'll add a thread after explaining the concepts, providing evidence of Herd Immunity plans and Compliance Failures and showing the relevant documents that prove the points above.

This Government must go before it kills any more innocents

🗯️11/40 Appendix

First some general knowledge
What is #herdimmunity?

If enough people are immune to a disease, anyone not immune will be protected by the Herd - bugs can't be passed on if they only meet immune hosts.

Normally this immunity is given through vaccines

🗯️12/40
Theoretically [HI] can be acquired a different way. By exposing fit and healthy people to a virus, if they survive, they also have immunity. And once there are enough of them, the virus dies out.

This only works if the less healthy are kept isolated & borders controlled

🗯️13/40
There are a LOT of problems I've skipped over in the last tweet. For background reading, you can look at this attached thread, it's 70 tweets, so I'll summarise.

Beyond any other factor, [HI] can only work if the virus is relatively stable.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1238405497897857024?s=20

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If the virus is not stable (mutates) then you have a very high risk either that it will change, or multiple versions (strains) of the virus will appear.

That's a big problem.

Because your high risks need eventually to leave their homes.

🗯️15/40
With an unstable virus, you risk it not being wiped out (I'll show that's a problem for all strategies later), infecting the High Risk

BUT
you also risk re-infecting the "healthy" heard with a virus they don't have immunity for

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There are many other criticisms of a #herdimmunity plan in attachment covers.

You don't need them because, with a new virus as the WHO⬇️ said quite pointedly, you know little.

But you know enough to judge.
Only one was sure for a CoronaVirus.

It would be unstable.

🗯️17/40
See pinned threads on UKGov deliberate infections.

One evening I recall screaming at Channel4 news. With planes from Italy, they weren't even trying and. A UKGov rep told us that that Containment couldn't STOP the virus.

Containment was for SLOWING exponential viruses!

🗯️18/40
Based on China, [HI] I think the Government will increase deaths from 1.2m to 1.7m. 500,000 preventable deaths (see appendix).

I hope social isolation, which the Chinese got later, works better here. But even if it does 1/3 sadly could have survived if not for [HI].

🗯️19/20
That's the background, and you now know as much science as you need to sit in the room with Government advisors and raise a hand as they plan mass infections and no border containment - for TWO MONTHS!

You raise your👏, "WTF are you doing. People will die needlessly"

🗯️20/20

That's where I've been for about 4 weeks, initially incredulous at the strategy, then with the "change" devastated at the slow pace.
Some of the things announced this week should have been done a month ago.
Some two months ago.

But I didn't have the answer to 👏 WTF

🗯️21/
We knew some weird stuff.

The Chief Medical Officer - Patrick Vallance - had stood in front of the whole country saying things that weren't science.
A [HI] rate he couldn't know for a new virus
A plan that was against W.H.O. advice
And contrary to every other country

🗯️22/
We knew the Government PR machine had gone full-on PR to justify its odd approach.
It had pulled in ministers and its advisers to deal with a massive amount of feedback from immunologists and epidemiologists also saying 👏 WTF

fortune.com/2020/03/14/cor…

🗯️23/
Procedures called for public awareness.
We knew that a Government prepared to spend £100 million on a Brexit plan, didn't have difficulties creating short term communications.
Yet there was no Coronavirus flier, no TV, not even a press ad.
Nothing to warn of symptoms??

🗯️24/
I played with logic trees, there weren't many explanations for incredible confidence in the face of what seemed inexplicable.

1. Undiscovered Science only UKGov had
2. Incompetence/Bad management
3. Fear/unable to move
4. Arrogance
5. Malevolence

🗯️25/
1. ❌The China & WHO data. The epidemiologist reports? Very unlikely
2. ❌ The degree of consistent intentional sabotage had to be directed
3. ❌ Scared men don't make the riskiest choice
5. ❌Conspiracy theory. Without reason?
4. ✅ Once you've ruled out the impossible...

🗯️26/40

So I started to look for evidence.

There couldn't be ex-virologists in Cabinet, or they'd be sociopaths. So I needed

a) a concept someone bumped into, but didn't understand
b) a plan that featured this with heavy caveats

This was much easier than I anticipated

27/40
Government literature is dripping with [HI]. I can't even begin to count how many of these reports I've read through, or even tell you the total. The concept is everywhere.

It's going to fill tweets just showing you examples. I'll try to keep this short.

You have specialist disease reviews
publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2019/08/19/mea…

Concerns about anti-vax activities
gov.uk/government/new…

General Immunisation Plans
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Specific Virus Plans
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Local Gov Activities
gloucestershire.gov.uk/gloucestershir…

Warnings
london.gov.uk/press-releases…

Department & Institution Strategies
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

in-depth Subject Guides (externally produced, Gov distributed)
vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immuni…

Local Awareness Campaigns
love.lambeth.gov.uk/measles-2018/

Age-related Campaigns
slough.gov.uk/council/joint-…

30/40
Every report extolling the virtues of [Herd I]
I'll stop there - if anyone wants to try to argue this is not a ubiquitous concept...

Then I think with some credibility it could be argued that an alien landing on earth would conclude [HI] to be the only activity of UKGov

31/40
That seems reasonable grounds to pass
a) a concept someone had bumped into.
How about
b) the plan with caveats.

Would you believe this one? Influenza Pandemic Strategy
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

And this one - Scientific Study Flu PanD Mitigation
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

32/40

There are lengthy reports which I suggest you read, I've picked out 10 extracts that show if you had no epidemiological experience, but confidence in your intellectual superiority, how a plan might be formed.

This is a theory remember. I'm not proposing this as proof.

33/40

Let's suppose this starts out with a problem.
What to do about a virus with no vaccine and with an unknown amount of time to find a vaccine

None of the reports provides much help. The starting assumption for all is that there will, eventually be one

34/40

You quickly conclude that no vaccine doesn't look good, and you find out that it's particularly bad in high risks groups.

You're worried - with no herd immunity from a vaccine the deaths will be severe.

35/40

Then you stumble onto something. the end of the sentence.

An idea herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine.

36/40
That's an idea you can't get out of your head once it's there. It's very very very attractive. Especially since you can't catch it at the border.

That means ignoring clear change of advice from the WHO in Feb TO CATCH IT AT THE BORDER.

But maybe we can ignore that.

37/40
A plan is forming. We can't stop it, but we could find a way to create herd immunity in the infected, using the same plan as a vaccine but letting infections provided it. Amongst the healthy of course

38/40
We'd have to be careful, in case it spun out of control. Is there a way to slow and start it - like a bellows on fire?

Oooh what's this about schools?

39/40
Can we flex that strategy?
Maybe proactive and reactive closures is an idea
We could do that with mass gatherings too.

40/40

There are probably some caveats we skipped over right?
Annoying when some twitter idiot reads them.

It seems conceivable. No scientist in this area could ever come up with a #herdimmunity strategy to build immunity by infecting a population in stages.

They definitely wouldn't for a virus even more mutation prone than Influenza.

But a team of brilliant geeks?

To create UKGov's original plan you need just the right balance of

1. Intellectual superiority - YOU don't need help
2. Establishment rejection - YOU ARE BETTER than experts

Then you can come up with this plan
And kill about 500,000 innocents

You can find relevant appendices and sources on
#containment failure
#herdimmunity bad science
estimated deaths
and other references
HERE

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1239980074398556167?s=20

If you're still there...I keep coming back to this.

We know containment didn't happen
We know [HI] was homicidal
And if we know nothing else, the people who made those decisions are still making them.

And that's unacceptable. Morally, ethically and to prevent further mistakes