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The numbers in Washington state, which has done far more testing per capita than any other US state, are mildly encouraging:

new cases by day per @COVID19Tracking:
3/11: 105
3/12: 70
3/13: 120
3/14: 111
3/15: 74
3/16: 127
3/17: 135
3/18: 108
Also, here are the daily numbers for King County, WA (Seattle), per @KCPubHealth:

3/8: 12
3/9: 33
3/10: 74
3/11: 44*
3/12: 36
3/13: 58
3/14: 60
3/15: 32
3/16: 68
3/17: 30
3/18: 44

* Having trouble tracking down 3/11 so the number is imputed based on the cumulative case count.
The other lesson from Seattle is that⁠—based on e.g. restaurant reservation data⁠—widespread social distancing took place sooner there than elsewhere. So combined with relatively good testing, it's where we might hope to see the curve bending first.
⁠opentable.com/state-of-indus…
Major employers in Seattle were also well ahead of the rest of the country in asking employees to work from home. That both helps with social distancing and serves as a signal to people that it's not business-as-usual. theverge.com/2020/3/5/21166…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's another interesting comparison. Yesterday, detected cases increased by 31% in Trump states as compared to 21% in Clinton states.
If detected cases in each set of states continue to increase at their current rates, the number of cases in Trump states would surpass the number of cases in Clinton states on 4/11... the day before Easter.
There is also likely significant underdetection in Trump states. In Trump states that report on hospitalizations, 20% of detected cases are resulting in hospitalizations, compared to 12% in Clinton states (10% without NY). That probably means a lot of mild cases are being missed.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The most important COVID-19 metric right now is hospitalizations. Why?

1) Not affected as much by how many tests are conducted 2) Directly reflects strain on the medical system
3) Directly reflects number of severe cases that could result in death
More states are reporting hospitalization numbers now, although frustratingly NY did not update its count today. For states reporting them, they seem to be increasing at a rate of around 20% per day. covidtracking.com/data/
That's probably a decent indication of how fast COVID-19 is spreading right now*. Better than the # of positives, which partly reflects the rapid ↑↑ in testing.

* More precisely, how fast it was spreading 7-10 days ago, since there's a lag between infection & hospitalization.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'm not sure it's useful to look at the US coronavirus numbers as a whole. For now, it's probably best to think about four regions:

1) NYC metro
2) Washington state
3) California
4) Everywhere else

NYC metro is quite scary. They're doing a LOT of testing but even so, the number of positives as a share of tests remains quite high. Also, a LOT of hospitalizations and lots of credible reports of strain building on the medical system.
Washington state is the most encouraging, conversely. They've done a lot of testing, the data is good, and the curve is fairly flat. Makes sense given that formal and informal social distancing policies went into place sooner there than elsewhere.
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Ogun State Government - OGSG
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OGUN ANNOUNCES FURTHER MEASURES TO COMBAT COVID-19

Ogun State Government, Monday, announced new measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Mikey Kay
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#COVIDー19 22 March 2020|

IMPORTANT THREAD.

Part 1

There’s important data coming out of Italy on confirmed cases & deaths due to COVID. This should be treated as an Indicator & Warning by all of us. Please watch & share. (Birds chirping in the background for moral support!)
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Government policy & guidance needs to rapidly turn into a proactive stance to reassure us, the public, that there is a plan. What happens when, and it will happen, we get zero confirmed no new cases?
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Beͫvͣaͬnͨd
@zorinaq
Thread.

Over 14 000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in a single day—today

Far more cases are reported around the world every day than when the epidemic peaked in China (~4000 new cases per day)

Exponential growth is continuing unabated, see next tweet
Cumulative cases charts (linear and log scale) show the number of cases outside China are multiplying by 10 every 14 days.

88 000 cases today

0.8 million cases by end of March, if the trend continues for the next 14 days (and it probably will)
What about deaths?

Over 800 deaths caused by COVID-19 were reported in a single day—today

This is far more than the peak observed in China (about 150 deaths per day), and it continues to grow at an exponential rate
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The Walrus
@walrusmagazine
Hi, this is @kevinpatterson. I’m a critical care doctor; I work in an ICU on Vancouver Island, and in the Arctic on the west coast of Hudson Bay. I’ve been thinking a lot about the history of pandemics lately, for all the obvious reasons—and also, about February 15. 1/11
Only six weeks ago, in the last days of January, Wuhan, China was seeing thousands of new cases a day. The hospitals were overwhelmed, and 14% of nurses became infected. It got pretty Dantean. 2/11
On January 23, China imposed draconian public health measures to try and halt the spread. At that point, there had been 517 #COVIDー19 cases in Wuhan, and 17 deaths—on both counts, fewer than America has right now. 3/11
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François Heisbourg
@FHeisbourg
A back-of-the-enveloppe thread on the spread of #COVIDー19:

1) HUBEI province (ca 60 million people) has had close to 3000 deaths. It still has an active caseload of ca 20 K patients & some 130 new cases a day, & ca 30 daily deaths. So I expect up to 3500 deaths, assuming...1/9
...a winding down of the epidemic there by end March. If,stress IF, the rest of the world became like Hubei (0.8%of world population), the death toll could be of ca 400 K with a cumulative number of cases of ca 8 million.This possibly sets the outer bounds of a Covid pandemic 2/n
Of course, active measures in the world may prevent Hubei-scale outbreaks so this is unlikely to happen (conversely, late but tough measures in Hubei have also limited Covid's spread in that province).

2) GOOD NEWS though in rest of mainland China ( minus Hubei, HK,Macau): 3/n
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Ali
@aliostad
Day 8 of aggregating information on what goes on with #COVIDー19 in Iran.

Picking up from yesterday:

As stated before:

Finally authorities are putting Mazandaran province on quarantine: only fuel and food trucks are allowed. This late, its effectiveness will be limited.

The same authorities have had argued for quarantine to be "non-scientific" and "from middle ages".

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