The most important COVID-19 metric right now is hospitalizations. Why?
1) Not affected as much by how many tests are conducted 2) Directly reflects strain on the medical system
3) Directly reflects number of severe cases that could result in death
1) Not affected as much by how many tests are conducted 2) Directly reflects strain on the medical system
3) Directly reflects number of severe cases that could result in death
More states are reporting hospitalization numbers now, although frustratingly NY did not update its count today. For states reporting them, they seem to be increasing at a rate of around 20% per day. covidtracking.com/data/
That's probably a decent indication of how fast COVID-19 is spreading right now*. Better than the # of positives, which partly reflects the rapid ↑↑ in testing.
* More precisely, how fast it was spreading 7-10 days ago, since there's a lag between infection & hospitalization.
* More precisely, how fast it was spreading 7-10 days ago, since there's a lag between infection & hospitalization.
OK, so New York did report hospitalizations.
A 33% increase from Sunday -> Monday, following a 23% increase from Saturday -> Sunday.
These are worrying numbers.
(Although slower than the rate of increase in positive tests.)
A 33% increase from Sunday -> Monday, following a 23% increase from Saturday -> Sunday.
These are worrying numbers.
(Although slower than the rate of increase in positive tests.)
