I'm not sure it's useful to look at the US coronavirus numbers as a whole. For now, it's probably best to think about four regions:
1) NYC metro
2) Washington state
3) California
4) Everywhere else
1) NYC metro
2) Washington state
3) California
4) Everywhere else
NYC metro is quite scary. They're doing a LOT of testing but even so, the number of positives as a share of tests remains quite high. Also, a LOT of hospitalizations and lots of credible reports of strain building on the medical system.
Washington state is the most encouraging, conversely. They've done a lot of testing, the data is good, and the curve is fairly flat. Makes sense given that formal and informal social distancing policies went into place sooner there than elsewhere.
I haven't spent as much time on CA. Frankly, the data isn't great. Many tests are being conducted through private labs. They aren't reporting hospitalizations. The growth rates aren't as steep as most other places, which is somewhat encouraging, but there's a lot we don't know.
"Everywhere else" is a big bucket. There is a *lot* of variation in: i) how many tests are being conducted; ii) how much government-mandated social distancing is happening. But I worry that the places with the worst outbreaks don't know it yet.
