Thread.
Over 14 000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in a single day—today
Far more cases are reported around the world every day than when the epidemic peaked in China (~4000 new cases per day)
Exponential growth is continuing unabated, see next tweet
Over 14 000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported in a single day—today
Far more cases are reported around the world every day than when the epidemic peaked in China (~4000 new cases per day)
Exponential growth is continuing unabated, see next tweet
Cumulative cases charts (linear and log scale) show the number of cases outside China are multiplying by 10 every 14 days.
88 000 cases today
0.8 million cases by end of March, if the trend continues for the next 14 days (and it probably will)
88 000 cases today
0.8 million cases by end of March, if the trend continues for the next 14 days (and it probably will)
What about deaths?
Over 800 deaths caused by COVID-19 were reported in a single day—today
This is far more than the peak observed in China (about 150 deaths per day), and it continues to grow at an exponential rate
Over 800 deaths caused by COVID-19 were reported in a single day—today
This is far more than the peak observed in China (about 150 deaths per day), and it continues to grow at an exponential rate
The number of deaths has been multiplying by 10 ever 10 days.
They ramp up faster than the number of cases (10x every 14 days)
This could suggest 2 things:
1. case fatality is worsening over time
2. cases are more and more often under-reported
Either way, it's not looking good
They ramp up faster than the number of cases (10x every 14 days)
This could suggest 2 things:
1. case fatality is worsening over time
2. cases are more and more often under-reported
Either way, it's not looking good
China's extreme response measures (lockdowns far more thorough than in any country) are working beautifully.
They report ~30 new cases per day, down from ~3500 per day at the peak
This is the only country—along with perhaps South Korea—where things are looking not so bleak
They report ~30 new cases per day, down from ~3500 per day at the peak
This is the only country—along with perhaps South Korea—where things are looking not so bleak
In South Korea it may seem that the outbreak is under control, but based on what the KCDC is saying, the chart peak could be an artifact of having detected and quickly tested the church cluster at the epicenter of the epidemic in the country:
Cases in Italy, Iran, Spain, France are growing at an alarming pace.
Note that Iran is widely suspected of severe under-reporting, with cases or deaths being 10x or 50x higher than official figures.
Note that Iran is widely suspected of severe under-reporting, with cases or deaths being 10x or 50x higher than official figures.
Cases in Germany, Switerzland, the US and the UK are also growing at an alarming pace.
Note that, for the US, WHO data is severely lagging by 2-3 days () so my chart shows a conservative estimate of new cases for the last 2 days, based on @BNODesk's data
Note that, for the US, WHO data is severely lagging by 2-3 days () so my chart shows a conservative estimate of new cases for the last 2 days, based on @BNODesk's data
Deaths in China are way down, again thanks to their extreme response measures.
However the deaths in Italy, Iran, and Spain are spiking worryingly. No sign of slowing down.
However the deaths in Italy, Iran, and Spain are spiking worryingly. No sign of slowing down.
Deaths in France, the UK, the US, and Netherlands are up.
Let's zoom in on Singapore: it now seems more and more clear that containment is failing, with a net increase of new cases per day in the last week.
Weather is currently 26-33°C, so it doesn't support the theory that warm weather might slow down the coronavirus.
Weather is currently 26-33°C, so it doesn't support the theory that warm weather might slow down the coronavirus.
