Whole lot of hot takes out there around #COVID19, foresight, and the #BlackSwan concept | Dear readers, I present to you...the hottest of hot takes: #coronavirus both "is and is not" a black swan, & this is the most reasonable, rigorous, & responsible view
But first, yes...foresight actually works! And not because it can help you "predict" the future, but precisely because it can help you understand complex phenomena and, at best, spot "emerging issues." See: &
And, the folks at @CSIS struck gold: csis.org/analysis/we-pr… Unfortunate use of the word "predict," which literally means "say before" & should be banished from the vocabulary of all futurists. Great stuff from @BryanAlexander here: bryanalexander.org/futures/antici…
And, of course, there is the extraordinary story of #coralcross, which was led by two #manoaschool titans: @futuryst & @dunagan23 | Fantastic thread here: I will come back to this thread later, but if you have not already given it a look, please do🙏🙏🙏
As fate would have it, even the outgoing Obama Administration ran a pandemic simulation in 2017: theatlantic.com/politics/archi… What all of these forecasts (not predictions) have in common is a reliance upon an understanding of & engagement w/ [wait for it] #complexity
Many, if not all, futurists (certainly those w/ training) reinforce the importance of exploring complexity, which is all about the components, behaviors, and patterns of systems. Socrates said, "philosophy begins in wonder." Foresight begins in complexity (ok, wonder too).
Complexity science was born out of the theories & insights of quantum mechanics (QM). One of its most important concepts is wave-particle duality, which states that objects at this scale can display the characteristics of a wave and/or particle (Ant-Man doesn't count)
Einstein: "It seems as though we must use sometimes the one theory & sometimes the other [...] We have two contradictory pictures of reality; separately neither of them fully explains [it], but together they do." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave%E2%8… (Yes, Wikipedia...free & multi-language)
This brings us to the "Observer Effect," as evidenced by the Double-Slit Experiment, showing that light could be both a wave and a particle: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-sl… Feynman called this a "mystery," & the key takeaway, for futurists, is that perspective and context matter!
So, let's bring this back to Taleb's infamous notion of the "black swan," which gets used and abused. As he observes, black swans are outliers (abnormal and/or rare), extremely impactful, and ultimately defy "prediction."
Black swans, as such, are not "wild cards," which presumes "non-wild cards." For more on this, & some @jimdator magic, check out: miscmagazine.com/no-normal-futu… Also, don't miss the phenomenal work of @elinafuturist on #weaksignals researchgate.net/publication/22… #nonormalfuture #manoaschool
Ok, so we've got #BlackSwan, wild cards, weak signals, & let's add #emergingissues | As "the" future does not exist (even now), #emergingissuesanalysis works to "identify things in their earliest emergence" (aka weak signals) More from @jimdator: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…
In an article outlining "The Three Tomorrows" method (researchgate.net/publication/28…), @CPPFS Director, Zia Sardar, and I highlight the importance of context & perspective, which led us to add #blackelephant & #blackjellyfish into the mix alongside the #BlackSwan 
.@CPPFS, & @wendyinfutures in particular, shaped these metaphors into three essential questions. The aim of which is not to come to a consensus (something is this & not that), but rather to focus on "what one is seeing" & "how one is seeing it" So, back to #complexity
These metaphors are heuristics that help us learn not Platonic "forms." Of course, some people were missing or not seeing the pandemic threat [Trump 👀]. For some, such an outbreak is (and remains) unthinkable 👇 And, chaos is unfolding euractiv.com/section/corona…
I like that there has been a movement to frame events and phenomena in diverse ways: But, rather than establishing universal categories, we should be focusing on "for whom" and "within what context" to provide more depth and complexity to our analysis
Consequently, saying something "is or is not" a black swan feels like the proverbial "angels dancing on the head of a pin" take, and, in my view, misses the point of reasonable, rigorous, & responsible #foresight en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_many_…
Foresight is not about predicting the future [read again for effect] At best, "using the future" can help us make better decisions toward shaping a more preferred future, but, as our current situation shows, the world defies even our most advanced models. See also #climatechange
What is happening now, and what many are forecasting to unfold further, is #dystopia [full stop] | Of course, we cannot shy away from any & all #postnormal potentialities. See this exquisite piece by @Leah_Zaidi here: medium.com/predict/the-da… 👏
At the end of @futuryst's threat on #coralcross, he makes a critical point: there exists a global community (@worldfutures @profuturists & others) who have studied, trained, & learned through communities of practice a range of tools, methods, & approaches for #socialforesight
I would add one more hashtag to the list put forward by @futuryst: #participatoryfutures | For more on this, check out: nesta.org.uk/report/our-fut… Ok, whew...stepping off the soap box. I can think of no greater wish for us all then: may all your tsunamis be surfable! #manoaschool
🤦♂️ This should be "thread" and not "threat." Possible Freudian slip, especially given the threats all around us.
