I just got off the phone with a friend who runs a company that builds exhibition stands. How bad is the impact of the coronavirus?
It's a disaster. All conferences, fairs and exhibitions have been postponed till after the summer.
Their biggest job, a food conference that takes place every two years and was planned for this spring is one of those events.
Some context: my friend co-owns the company with another manager. They both work alongside their six employees: making booths, panels, driving trucks... This is a small business.
His lost revenue for the coming months is €300,000. He counts himself lucky that his customers haven't asked their deposits back. But that's on condition that his business will deliver the goods later.
HOWEVER. There are multiple problems.
1) Exhibitors obviously want to show their latest products. Everything that has been prepared will be useless in six months time
1) Exhibitors obviously want to show their latest products. Everything that has been prepared will be useless in six months time
2) It is impossible to move all fairs to September. There are not enough venues, panels, booths, lights... to organize that many exhibitions at the same time
3) His employees use the Belgian temporary unemployment system (more on that later). His workers will have to take their annual vacation later in the year. But later in the year will be super busy (assuming fairs can take place). His business won't have the manpower!
Oh I forgot: they rent their trucks. The rental company has lost all of its customers and might go bankrupt if the government doesn't urgently do something. @alexanderdecroo @crevits
Back to my friend's firm: if he can't deliver in September due to shortages of labor or materials, he will be forced to chose between his commitments to long term customers.
OK, about the temporary unemployment of the workers. The system is totally overwhelmed. Nobody picks up the phone or answers mails. @nathaliemuylle
So my friend doesn't know if his employees will receive their benefits on time.
The entire government response is total shit. If you close your business due to the coronavirus, you get €4000 for a month. Maybe that covers the bills for a small bar, but not for a business like my friend's. Nevermind larger companies.
At least the bank has assured him that they could defer the payments of their loans.
Government communication is shit. My friend is a real entrepreneur. He thought about switching to package delivery for the time of the crisis. But will he be punished for doing so? Maybe they won't be eligible for gov support. Risky! So he decided to close business instead.
There are 500,000 temporary unemployed workers in Belgium, expected to rise to 1 million. This on a population of 11 million and a labor force of 5 million. Many of these could e.g. work at supermarkets, in greenhouses (replacing Polish migrant workers who fled the virus)...
...help in hospitals, logistics...
In reality, there is both mass unemployment and labor shortages. Crazy! @alexanderdecroo @crevits @nathaliemuylle
In reality, there is both mass unemployment and labor shortages. Crazy! @alexanderdecroo @crevits @nathaliemuylle
OK return to my friend's worries. He's still somewhat optimistic, providing business as usual can continue after the summer. (He expects the summer festivals will all be canceled)
BUT. Conferences and exhibitions are very dependent on the financial health of businesses. If you're in survival mode, you don't have to money to exhibit at fair.
The previous owner said it took almost 10 years to return to the level before the 2008 financial crisis
My friend expects that his company will survive, but many larger stand construction companies won't.
On top of that, he expects higher taxes to "pay for the crisis"
While - and I cannot stress this enough - THE. GOVERNMENT. CAUSED. THIS. FUCKING. CRISIS. BY. ITS. INCOMPETENCE.
People like my friend, who work much harder than I do, who take risks, who employ people, who pay tons of taxes, now risk to lose everything by this criminal incompetence. Oh yeah, did I tell you his wife is pregnant with their first baby?
So that's why I say government needs to BAIL OUT EVERYONE. Hundreds of thousands of small businesses and self-employed risk bankruptcy.
Socialism bros and Schumpeter autists should SHUT THE FUCK UP about the risks of shareholders, strategic sectors, buybacks, creative destruction and other shit. Entrepreneurs did nothing wrong. Fucking autists with stable government/think tank jobs can whine about fairness later
I'll write this in Dutch later. SAVE OUR ECONOMY. RED ONZE ECONOMIE. SAUVE NOTRE ECONOMIE! @alexanderdecroo @crevits @nathaliemuylle @Sophie_Wilmes @JanJambon @PieterVBO @VOKA_HMaertens @UNIZOvzw @bartdesmet57
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