#FlattenTheCurve IN NEW YORK?
The total of new cases in New York the last four days held steady:
4,812 Sat 3/21
5,707 Sun 3/22
4,790 Mon 3/23
5,146 Tuesday 3/24
5,113 Average
The total of new cases in New York the last four days held steady:
4,812 Sat 3/21
5,707 Sun 3/22
4,790 Mon 3/23
5,146 Tuesday 3/24
5,113 Average
2/8 #FlattenTheCurve reached NY the last few days (see above tweet). Considering that many cases appear a week or two after exposure, this means the spread is slowing for over a week which is why it is seen in the data of the last 3-4 days. A week ago Wed, most businesses/shops
3/8 were still open; schools closed 9 days ago Mon, and gatherings above 50 were stopped 10 days ago. The point is that despite not having 7-10 days ago the lockdown levels that we have now, the spread in NY is already slowing for 7-10 days as seen in the flattening of new cases
4/8 in the data of this week Sun-Mon-Tuesday which reflect the spreading of infection of 7-10 days ago. Again, hospitals can snap with only a few thousand severe cases at once; hence the need to focus on expanding capacity as I am tweeting 10 times a day for 3 weeks. But if the
5/8 flattening data holds another few days, the lesson may be that we need to continue mass slowdowns; not lockdowns, and a strong focus on hygiene. I am putting this out here now because people will attribute the flattening of the last few days to the mass lockdowns of the
6/8 last few days, but sorry clowns. Things don’t flip in a matter of 2-3 days per what experts told us that from exposure to infection can easily take a week or two and then another few days hospitalization. Cool, so the slow down in hospitalizations that Cuomo boasted today Wed
7/8 is from what happened a good 10 days ago. Ok, 10 days ago there was not a fraction of the lockdown that we have now as I listed dates/steps in my tweets above (non-essential business closed only 60 hours ago; Sun March 22 at 8:00 PM). However, there was already great talk of
8/8 keeping the distance and hygiene 10 days ago Sunday, and Cuomo placed a limit on gathering above 500 on Thur March 12. These measured slowdown/hygiene steps made the diff that we are seeing now in the data. I hope all this is given some thought. Be well. #StayHome.
