.@BenjySarlin Dr. Birx is right that no country has a 20% infection rate in a matter of weeks and also 2% - 3% of those dying. But because Coronavirus seems to spread like wildfire, even a fraction of a percent needing hospital (and a smaller percent dying) is a huge problem.
.@BenjySarlin NY known cases (as in any place) seem to rise based on the amount testing. This means NY has now easily hundreds of thousands of cases if not millions. So even if “only” 0.3% need the hospital and 0.1% die, it stresses the system. True, but it’s not a 3% death rate.
New Cases in NY per day:
4,812 Sat 3/21
5,707 Sun 3/22
4,790 Mon 3/23
5,146 Tuesday 3/24
6,447 Wed 3/25
7,377 Thur 3/26
Total Testing Per Day:
15,964 Sat 3/21/20
16,888 Sun 3/22/20
12,981 Mon 3/23/20
12,209 Tues 3/24/20
18,625 Wed 3/25/20
16,272 Thursday 3/26/20
4,812 Sat 3/21
5,707 Sun 3/22
4,790 Mon 3/23
5,146 Tuesday 3/24
6,447 Wed 3/25
7,377 Thur 3/26
Total Testing Per Day:
15,964 Sat 3/21/20
16,888 Sun 3/22/20
12,981 Mon 3/23/20
12,209 Tues 3/24/20
18,625 Wed 3/25/20
16,272 Thursday 3/26/20
4/6 As of Thursday March 26th, 32.2% NY tests are positive.
If 32.2% of NY has Coronavirus, it is 6.44 million people of which 519 (0.008%) died. If the 32% doesn’t reflect the state because only real cases are more likely to be tested, then how many NYers do have it? 10%? This
If 32.2% of NY has Coronavirus, it is 6.44 million people of which 519 (0.008%) died. If the 32% doesn’t reflect the state because only real cases are more likely to be tested, then how many NYers do have it? 10%? This
5/6 would be 2 million people of which 519 died. That’s a Case Fatality Rate of 0.02%. By the time NY does reach many thousands of deaths, millions more will have Coronavirus, so the CFR is still way lower than what people say/ fear it is. At any rate, this is the math that
6/6 Dr. Birx, professors from Stanford and from Oxford tried explaining the last 72 hours which is 3 weeks behind me. Stay home (and distance/gloves when out) because a rapidly-spreading virus stresses hospitals even if the hospitalization/ICU rates are a fraction of those cases.
