1/11 There has been quite a bit of Twitter discussion of the broader health effects of the current crisis, much of which refers to my work on the health effects of macroeconomic conditions. This stream provides some thoughts on that. #EconTwitter #epitwitter #COVID2019
2/ First & foremost, the honest answer is that we don’t know what will happen. The current severe economic downturn is caused by a health shock, which has not been the case in over 100 years. For instance, the “Great Recession” largely occurred due to a financial shock.
3/ Consider the extreme case. Some predictions were that in the “do-nothing” scenario, there could have been over 2 million COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. this year. That’s approximately equal to the total number of deaths last year. At the other extreme, some countries appear to
4/ have successfully limited death counts to relatively modest amounts (at least so far). The U.S. will probably be somewhere in-between.
some guidance. It all but certain that traffic fatalities will fall – probably by large amounts – as will deaths related to air pollution.
some guidance. It all but certain that traffic fatalities will fall – probably by large amounts – as will deaths related to air pollution.
5/ These are large effects, quite possibly big enough to offset any increase due to COVID-19.
But we are less clear about a variety of other factors. While physical health improves during typical downturns (although less than it used to), mental health does not.
But we are less clear about a variety of other factors. While physical health improves during typical downturns (although less than it used to), mental health does not.
6/ Thus, it is quite likely that suicides will increase, and this effect could be unusually strong since many of the social supports generally available during bad times may be unavailable or less accessible due to social isolation.
7/ Other mitigating behaviors may also be less available. Leisure-time physical activity generally increases in bad times but that may be less true now, when gyms are closed &, in some areas, individuals are being discouraged from going outside. On the other hand, more
8/ meals will be consumed at home, rather than restaurants, & home-cooked meals are generally healthier.
However, some discussion of these issues, particularly in high places, is confusing the issues. It is true that, so far, corona-virus mortality in the US is small compared to
However, some discussion of these issues, particularly in high places, is confusing the issues. It is true that, so far, corona-virus mortality in the US is small compared to
9/ deaths from influenza & many other causes. But the idea that this provides a reason for a quick restart of economic activity is wrong. All indications are that such a rapid resumption would lead to fatality numbers that would far exceed those currently seen.
10/ With careful planning, a “restart” could occur sooner. Required elements would include a massive increase in testing capacity & a coherent strategy for reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities, while preventing new outbreaks.
11/ I would love to see details of the plan.
