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A thread on Modi govt's #COVID Lockdown package:

1. Its good the govt has finally woken up to financially ameliorate the impacts of an unprecedented and unplanned locked down. But, as always, the govt seems to have made more out of the package than exists. Read on:
2. The doubling of LOANS to Self Help Groups from Rs 10 L to Rs 20 L. The total disbursed amount this year to SHGs under the scheme has been ~ Rs 1,500 crore. Total budget for year was approx Rs 9,000 cr. So dont expect money to suddenly go out and its certainly not budgeted+.
3. Interest is reduced on these loans for sums up to Rs 3 lakh only. Else SHGs pay standard bank interest rates. This year offtake has been miserable (read: govt indirectly squeezed it out due to revenue shortfall)
4. MNREGA: Wage up by Rs 20. Ridiculous.

Total work generated in March has already rashed by about 60-80 million persondays over prev FY. It will get worse. No work no pay. Centre has not paid dues worth Rs 1,856 cr+ for work already done this year.…
5. Double rations under PDS for 3 mnths. Extra volumesfree. Govt claims will spend Rs 40,000 cr

But as per budget food subsidy for 1 quarter (including other food schemes, not just PDS) is Rs 28,892 crore. The govt is exaggerating its costs - by ~ 100%

Yes, Pulses is a good +
6. Support to 60+ & widows: Rs 1,000 for 3 months

Centre already gives Rs 200-500 p.m. to states for pensions to citizens above age of 60 and widows. States add to it

In some cases new package is less than what 80+ year old already get! (thanks @sinhadipa)
7. LPG: Free cylinders to 8 cr Ujjwala households. govt claims Rs 13k cr.

Cylinder cost Rs 681 (2019-20). When cylinders to consumers were ~Rs 500 not more than 4 were consumed per year under scheme, 7 otherwise.

Now free. Lets optimistically presume 2 will be. Cost: Rs 10k cr.
EPF contribution by govt instead of employer+employee

Only to Cos with less than 100 employees, 90% below Rs 15,000 pm. How many such organisations? Data not shared. Perhaps @someshjha7 could tell you more soon on that.
8. These are back of envelope figures. One could go on and on for each component. Did this, out of sheer habit. Editors never like this. (At best, publish it next day buried, truncated, iffy)
9. Not to discredit what the poor will get. It is better than nothing. And yet, this is not enough BY FAR. Little for migrant+farm labour. And, its less than what Modi govt makes it out to be. Details besides the press release will tell more. But, who shall eve get details
10. Take a look at a collated quick take on costs for Modi govt of the package, by one of India's top minds on social security @sinhadipa . And she is being generous to govt in her assumptions
11. This is all still presuming that essential goods and services shall begin to smoothly move. People delivering these services and transport systems will have free movement. On that, some other valid logistical questions by @gurdeepsappal

addendum: Anyway the govt does not pay FCI its dues, which go from our savings. NSSF. Dues mounting endlessly for past three years. @sirajnoida could tell more. Think its more than Rs 1 lakh cr+ now
Now govt has changed its press release, deleting the breakdown of numbers.
12. Express' @iyervaidy also raises similar and other valid points about the adequacy and efficacy of the #Lockdown21 eco package:
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