Thread by @jmantillaba

No one knows the impact of #COVID19 on Organized Crime and Conflict as we don’t have previous evidence about the politics of crime amid a pandemia. However, as researchers, we can have informed prospective. Here, some developments, please add more so we can catch up!👇🏽1/...

2. Mexico 🇲🇽. Cartels report shortages of chemical supplies coming from China which impacts fentanyl production as well as wholesale and retail prices. This happens in the midst of an internal war within the Sinaloa Cartel.
google.com.co/amp/s/www.vice…

3. Colombia 🇨🇴. National Liberation Army (ELN) and Clan del Golfo -enemies- both are enforcing national lockdown with additional restrictions. This happens while prison riots take place across the country and violence against social leaders continues.

4. Venezuela 🇻🇪, Colectivos enforce national curfew at 23 de Enero neighborhood in Caracas. Allegedly they have already executed people or rival cliques who violated this regulation. Colectivos are a crucial piece of indirect urban rule in the country.
google.com.co/amp/s/www.elna…

5. Colombia 🇨🇴 and Venezuela 🇻🇪 border. Illegal paths (trochas) are thriving despite the Colombian government decision to enforce border control. They are charging about 350% of the normal fee. Border crossing remains restricted since 2015
m.vanguardia.com/colombia/paso-…

6. Brasil 🇧🇷. Gangs shut down their regular business in the favelas including tourist trips. Both Militias and Gang Factions are enforcing curfews. Although different gangs imposed different measures the message is one: stay home and wash your hands.
google.com.co/amp/s/amp.theg…

7. US 🇺🇸, Ransomeware gangs promise not to attack health industry organizations during Covid 19 outbreak. However, authorities such as Interpol report an increase in cyber crime such as pishing and diversified scams during the last weeks.
google.com.co/amp/s/www.forb…

8. US 🇺🇸. Intel alerts regarding possible attacks from White Supremacists. Domestic elements might take advantage of the crisis and target minority groups.
thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-whi…

9. US 🇺🇸. In a related incident, a man (white supremacist) who planned to bomb a hospital was killed by the FBI
google.com.co/amp/s/www.dail…

10. UK 🇬🇧. As with any other good, shortages in drug supply are expected in a high demand drug market such as the British one. Concerns are raised on how will supply lines replace some drugs or substances in an effort to keep up the profits.
google.com.co/amp/s/www.inde…

11. Italy 🇮🇹. It is pretty clear that a long term massive lockdown will affect organized crime and Mafia formations, but how? @federico_varese and @annasergi discuss the Italian case.
occrp.org/en/blog/11905-…

12. Haiti 🇭🇹. According to experts a third of the country is under gang rule after the end of UN peace mission. After the first positive cases were confirmed earlier this week further developments are uncertain. Cholera killed 10K in the last years

google.com.co/amp/s/www.nbcm…

13. Myanmar 🇲🇲. In this complex context drug related groups such as Tnla keep clashing with other militias. In the mean time government reports large drugs seizures while rebel groups in other parts of the country distributed Covid19 prevention measures.
bnionline.net/en/news/fatali…

14. ISIS 🏴. After releasing a Travel Alert recommending its 20,000 fighters to avoid Europe, Isis now states that enemy cities under crisis should be attacked.
hstoday.us/subject-matter…

15. Afghanistan 🇦🇫. ISIS keeps attacking minorities despite the recent Taliban- US agreement. Talibans have denied their participation in recent violent incidents.
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…

16. Chad 🇹🇩. Boko Haram performed its deadliest attack ever killing 92 soldiers. Despite Covid 19 outbreak, the Nigerian group continues its expansion campaign in the Chad Lake area.
google.com.co/amp/s/amp.theg…

17. Mozambique 🇲🇿. Islamist insurgents gain terrain and reached the capital district of Quissanga by land and sea through joint attacks. Major Gas Complex is currently under threat.

dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-0…

18. Lebanon 🇱🇧. Hezbollah announces emergency Covid19 to support the country including 24,000 medical staff, ventilators and hospital supplies.

google.com.co/amp/s/mobile.r…

19. London 🇬🇧. @SHOC_RUSI Has one of the first analyses out there. They anticipate diversification in Organized Crime activities, important moves in terms of Cyber crime threats, and increasing challenges to already under pressure police departments.
rusi.org/commentary/how…

20. Other insight is the one from @GI_TOC . They just launched their #CovidCrimeWatch to follow the process. Social disorder, vulnerable groups, criminal adaptation,and state response failure are among the main concerns.

globalinitiative.net/crime-contagio…

21. Similarly @CrisisGroup elaborates on some trends to follow in the next months that will unfold from the overlap between war, crime and Covid19. Some of them include social unrest, conflict- affected populations, and geopolitical frictions.
crisisgroup.org/global/sb4-cov…