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A very simple curve that tells a tragic story
1. China w/ 4 times the population of the US was able to flatten their curve
2. The US has now blown thru China's case N (tip of the iceberg d/t no testing for 2 months) to be the #COVID19 epicenter
3. The worst is yet to come
the denialism of this simple curve and our (US) lack of learning from a region that was hit months before us is striking
the same people who are assailing Fauci now
"Fauci and .. Dr. Deborah Birx have become targets for political attacks from allies of the administration who are not qualified health advisers and don’t know what they are talking about. This is unacceptable."
@hholdenthorp @ScienceMagazine today
science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/ea…
For the hundreds of people who responded (+many bots) and don't believe the simple curve, or don't listen to China, or Italy (or truth and facts)
@fredmilgrim @IcahnMountSinai has something to say about it @TheAtlantic
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
We're learning more about the #COVID19 asymptomatic carriers, yet still much more to know
With broad testing, data for Iceland, Iceland vs. Netherland, Italy vs S Korea all show its propensity in the young, via @alexandreafonso w/ his informative thread 👇
There's still admixture with asymptomatic and mild symptoms, as previously summarized, with estimates ranging from 30-90% when these categories are combined. Iceland perhaps 50%. Prior summary of what's out there:
2/3
It's essential that we nail this down. Some countries like Germany and UK are doing systematic, large-scale random assessment of healthy people w/ serology. The US needs to do that too. I haven't heard of any plans to date. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
I put together a table of selected metrics for the 2 pandemics. There are some remarkable similarities in terms of responses, but even that's surprising for it being 100 years later for #COVID19.
More on the asymptomatic carrier story (*not fully defined) later.
Fixed the table, row 1
Reference for the BCG:
sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/c…
Reference for convalescent sera:
There are many, but I think this one is best on background in 1918 pandemic
jci.org/articles/view/…
The very high mortality rate (>80%) is for patients requiring endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The difference in #COVID19 geo-diffusion
—China #FlattentheCurve'd w/ drastic anti-mobility measures; no province outside Hubei w/ >1500 cases
—US already has 15 states across the country w/ >1500 cases
US details:
@ScottGottliebMD
For the #FlatEarth responders who don't believe data, or Chinese data, you can read @ScienceMagazine about "cordon sanitaire"--the draconian anti-mobility measures that worked, co-authored by leading international researchers
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
"Interventions include improved rates of diagnostic testing, clinical management, rapid isolation of suspected cases, confirmed cases and contacts & most notably restrictions on mobility (cordon sanitaire) imposed on Wuhan city on 23rd Jan"
BTW, All the things not done in the US
Read 3 tweets

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peter kilmarx
@PeterKilmarx
Some findings from @WHO #China report (1/n): #COVID19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact. Airborne spread has not been reported and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission who.int/docs/default-s…
2/n: Fecal shedding has been demonstrated from some patients, and viable virus has been identified in a limited number of case reports. However, the fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission.
3/n: In China, human-to-human transmission is largely occurring in families. Among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases most (78%-85%) occurred in families. Preliminary studies estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.
Read 19 tweets
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Jeremy Farrar
@JeremyFarrar
It is absolutely right for @WHO to have declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Countries, public health teams and researchers worldwide have been acting on this with the very highest level of concern for the last few weeks. @DrTedros
But this virus has spread at unprecedented scale and speed, with cases passing between people in multiple countries across the world. Declaration of an international emergency will undoubtedly sharpen governments’ focus on protecting citizens.
But we must also step-up as an international community to make sure no one is left behind - with all interventions, including public health measures, diagnostics, treatments and vaccines available to everyone.
Read 13 tweets
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Martin Chorzempa 马永哲
@ChorzempaMartin
Quick thread on #China response to #Facebook #Libra. It is the greatest threat to Chinese fintech dominance now and they know it. CN tech firms have not yet gained many users internationally, unlike US tech. US tech has not, however, had fintech success of Alibaba/Tencent 1/n
2/n In response they are speeding up central bank digital currency plans with Ant Financial, and even raising the possibility of loosening domestic cryptocurrency regulation to ensure there is a Chinese competitor. My primer on CN crypto regulation: piie.com/blogs/china-ec…
3/n They warn, rightly, that many people might dump unstable local currencies for Libra, which could lead those currencies to fall and disrupt economies. But of course, they want to warn other countries against allowing an American firm to design a currency used internationally
Read 8 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
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Sophia Yan 嚴倩君
@sophia_yan
Life in #China — a little tale of how this country deals with problems like squabbling children: I move into a new apt to discover upset neighbors who pay a visit to scream unintelligibly at me.
I finally figure out that they think the electric ac/heat in my unit is creating much noise in theirs. I learn this was a previous issue that the prop mgmt company I’m renting through failed to resolve.
Takes a week or so to get new unit; now it needs to be installed and I schedule this for two days later as I have a job that I can’t exactly drop everything last minute to supervise workers.
Read 31 tweets

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