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I put together a table of selected metrics for the 2 pandemics. There are some remarkable similarities in terms of responses, but even that's surprising for it being 100 years later for #COVID19.
More on the asymptomatic carrier story (*not fully defined) later.
Fixed the table, row 1
Reference for the BCG:
sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/c…
Reference for convalescent sera:
There are many, but I think this one is best on background in 1918 pandemic
jci.org/articles/view/…
The very high mortality rate (>80%) is for patients requiring endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
In praise of @drsanjaygupta and @DrLeanaWen, purveyors of @COVID19 truth, interrogating models/evidence and presenting unvarnished, hard realities for the public, w/ @AC360 @CNN
We surely need that.
We don't need drip, drip, drip & rose-colored glasses.
100, 200, 300.....
We're staring at 400 or more right now unless something big kicks in. We don't even have a national lockdown yet.
For those who missed an earlier post, these are real data. Plotted each day by @BMcNoldy, not based on a model. Based on a best-fit curve. See for yourself where we are headed on the log plot by mid-April if nothing increases the death doubling time.
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The US deaths doubling time is 2.6 days.
Which = 100,000 deaths by April 11th
and 200,000 by April 14th (you're hearing underestimates)
Unless something gives via flattening.
Here's @BMcNoldy's updated best-fit. We all need to hope this shifts downward. Soon.
For context, US deaths
9/11: 2,996
World War I: 116,516
World War II: 405,000
The @WhiteHouse advisors are 1° relying on @IHME_UW model.
On March 26:
"We estimate... a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106).. over the next 4 months in the US" healthdata.org/research-artic…
I think the world of @IHME_UW, but that projection is way off, more like 4 days
Read 4 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The critical 45 days: how one country got ahead of its outbreak and the other enabled unbridled #COVID19 spread
Looking at the numbers in more depth from @OurWorldInData @JoeHasell @MaxCRoser @KoreaCDC data
right panel= total cases from yesterday, note different X and Y axes
Which also explains why South Korea positive tests were <3% throughout.
As of end March 30 @COVID19Tracking for the US:
163,656 positive #COVID19 tests in 964,865 people
**a 16.9% positive rate**
At end March 31, now with 1,048,971 #COVID19 tests
the positive rate (184,770 people)
has gone up further to
**17.6%**
With more testing, the higher positive rate, along w/ the extremely high absolute rate, all reflect the breadth of spread (+ how far behind we've been on this)
Read 8 tweets

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Nitin Sethi
@nit_set
A thread on Modi govt's #COVID Lockdown package:

1. Its good the govt has finally woken up to financially ameliorate the impacts of an unprecedented and unplanned locked down. But, as always, the govt seems to have made more out of the package than exists. Read on:
2. The doubling of LOANS to Self Help Groups from Rs 10 L to Rs 20 L. The total disbursed amount this year to SHGs under the scheme has been ~ Rs 1,500 crore. Total budget for year was approx Rs 9,000 cr. So dont expect money to suddenly go out and its certainly not budgeted+.
3. Interest is reduced on these loans for sums up to Rs 3 lakh only. Else SHGs pay standard bank interest rates. This year offtake has been miserable (read: govt indirectly squeezed it out due to revenue shortfall)
Read 15 tweets
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Aaron Richterman, MD
@AaronRichterman
.@EricMeyerowitz and my talk about #COVID-19 literature update today -

Slides: docs.google.com/presentation/d…

Recording:
dropbox.com/s/bj0bbvggh1jr…

Key points with slides, links to papers below 👇
Virology: most important structural protein S ("spike") protein required for cell entry; nonstructural protein RNA polymerase, helicase; viral proteases that cleave non-structural proteins (PLpro, 3CLpro). Cell entry via ACE2/non-endosomal path

Below=SARS
nature.com/articles/nrd.2…
Environmental viability in EXPERIMENTAL conditions - 3+ hrs aerosol (does not imply routine aerosolization by patients), up to 72 hours steel and plastic.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 45 tweets
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Nick Benson
@pls_tks
The @CDCgov @WHO and @NSWHealth put personal hygiene as one of the major strategies to slow the spread of #COVIDー19
Here in Australia we have a nationwide shortage of ethanol and other ingredients to make hand sanitiser, hand wash, antibacterial wipes etc.
Last Thursday we mobilised at Atelier. We are a #cloudmanufacturing platform that virtualises manufacturing resources globally to make dynamic #supplychains to produce personal care products.
Read 10 tweets
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Alex V
@altryne
The whole world is learning the meaning of staying home for prolonged periods of time. For a lot of them, it will give them time to familiarize with new technology they haven't needed before. Prediction thread.
I expect the rise of VR (which is sold out everywhere), Streaming services, Food Delivery start ups (especially the autonomous ones).
Meditation apps will start selling more for sure, as most likely apps in general.
Technology stocks will quickly re-bounce, as the whole world will come to rely *even* more on the likes of AWS, Google Cloud and other big tech. Social media will be even more prevalent.
Read 15 tweets
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Stephen Barlow
@SteB777
So those running our governments can be held accountable in the future for their reckless prioritising of profit over public interest re: #COVIDー19 I want to start a discussion about what action should have been taken to prevent the spread of this virus.
Bringing in people who have commented on this. @GreenRupertRead @GeorgeMonbiot @GretaThunberg @ExtinctionR @RogerHallamCS21

Below I will list some of the obvious action I think should have happened to stop the spread of #COVIDー19.
1) To me the most obvious immediate action should have been an international moratorium on international travel and flying until the situation had been brought under control in China. At least a structure for this should have been put in place.
Read 19 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
Day 8 of aggregating information on what goes on with #COVIDー19 in Iran.

Picking up from yesterday:

As stated before:

Finally authorities are putting Mazandaran province on quarantine: only fuel and food trucks are allowed. This late, its effectiveness will be limited.

The same authorities have had argued for quarantine to be "non-scientific" and "from middle ages".

Read 38 tweets

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