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The difference in #COVID19 geo-diffusion
—China #FlattentheCurve'd w/ drastic anti-mobility measures; no province outside Hubei w/ >1500 cases
—US already has 15 states across the country w/ >1500 cases
US details:
@ScottGottliebMD
For the #FlatEarth responders who don't believe data, or Chinese data, you can read @ScienceMagazine about "cordon sanitaire"--the draconian anti-mobility measures that worked, co-authored by leading international researchers
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
"Interventions include improved rates of diagnostic testing, clinical management, rapid isolation of suspected cases, confirmed cases and contacts & most notably restrictions on mobility (cordon sanitaire) imposed on Wuhan city on 23rd Jan"
BTW, All the things not done in the US
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#COVID19 #FlattentheCurve #FlatEarth

More from @EricTopol see all

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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
In praise of @drsanjaygupta and @DrLeanaWen, purveyors of @COVID19 truth, interrogating models/evidence and presenting unvarnished, hard realities for the public, w/ @AC360 @CNN
We surely need that.
We don't need drip, drip, drip & rose-colored glasses.
100, 200, 300.....
We're staring at 400 or more right now unless something big kicks in. We don't even have a national lockdown yet.
For those who missed an earlier post, these are real data. Plotted each day by @BMcNoldy, not based on a model. Based on a best-fit curve. See for yourself where we are headed on the log plot by mid-April if nothing increases the death doubling time.
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The US deaths doubling time is 2.6 days.
Which = 100,000 deaths by April 11th
and 200,000 by April 14th (you're hearing underestimates)
Unless something gives via flattening.
Here's @BMcNoldy's updated best-fit. We all need to hope this shifts downward. Soon.
For context, US deaths
9/11: 2,996
World War I: 116,516
World War II: 405,000
The @WhiteHouse advisors are 1° relying on @IHME_UW model.
On March 26:
"We estimate... a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106).. over the next 4 months in the US" healthdata.org/research-artic…
I think the world of @IHME_UW, but that projection is way off, more like 4 days
Read 4 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
The critical 45 days: how one country got ahead of its outbreak and the other enabled unbridled #COVID19 spread
Looking at the numbers in more depth from @OurWorldInData @JoeHasell @MaxCRoser @KoreaCDC data
right panel= total cases from yesterday, note different X and Y axes
Which also explains why South Korea positive tests were <3% throughout.
As of end March 30 @COVID19Tracking for the US:
163,656 positive #COVID19 tests in 964,865 people
**a 16.9% positive rate**
At end March 31, now with 1,048,971 #COVID19 tests
the positive rate (184,770 people)
has gone up further to
**17.6%**
With more testing, the higher positive rate, along w/ the extremely high absolute rate, all reflect the breadth of spread (+ how far behind we've been on this)
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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Yossi Gestetner
@YossiGestetner
#FlattenTheCurve IN NEW YORK?

The total of new cases in New York the last four days held steady:

4,812 Sat 3/21

5,707 Sun 3/22

4,790 Mon 3/23

5,146 Tuesday 3/24

5,113 Average
2/8 #FlattenTheCurve reached NY the last few days (see above tweet). Considering that many cases appear a week or two after exposure, this means the spread is slowing for over a week which is why it is seen in the data of the last 3-4 days. A week ago Wed, most businesses/shops
3/8 were still open; schools closed 9 days ago Mon, and gatherings above 50 were stopped 10 days ago. The point is that despite not having 7-10 days ago the lockdown levels that we have now, the spread in NY is already slowing for 7-10 days as seen in the flattening of new cases
Read 8 tweets
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Eunice Yoon
@onlyyoontv
#China’s #Coronavirus Timeline:
Jan 23: epicenter Wuhan goes into lockdown
Feb 17: overall cases peak nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/20200…
Mar 11: new cases in hot zone Hubei drop to single digits nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/20200…
Mar 18: first day zero cases infected in country nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/20200…
US’ Similarities To #China When First Impose Restrictions:
1) surging cases
2) testing not widely available
3) medical supply shortage
#coronavirus
US’ #Coronavirus Timeline Based On #China’s Progress:
Mar 19-25: US states kick off stay-at-home orders
Mid-Apr: overall cases peak
Early-May: new cases peter out
Mid-May: first day of zero cases
Read 6 tweets
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Ahmed Quraishi
@_AhmedQuraishi
#COVIDー19 crisis response is another area where the performance of Prime Minister #ImranKhan's cabinet is inadequate & late resulting in a rapid surge in #coronavirus cases+infections. His TV address was unimpressive. @ImranKhanPTI can learn from @realDonaldTrump & @NYGovCuomo.
Unlike #USA+#Europe, #Pakistan is right next door to two epicenters of #COVIDー19 spread: #China & #Iran. China was initially late but later took impressive steps to contain the spread, incl quarantining #Pakistani citizens. Unlike Iran where Pk citizens visited in large numbrs.
What steps did PM #ImranKhan take for a #CoronaFreePakistan when it was obvious #Pakistan faced #COVIDー19 spread threat from #Iran; & when it became obvious that almost every neighbor incl #Iraq+#Turkey+#Gulf traced 1st cases to Iran & when #Tehran failed to warn neighbors?
Read 13 tweets
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Harlan Krumholz
@hmkyale
Participating in an intern'l webinar with the Chinese Cardiology Association to discuss lessons learned with #COVID-19. Learning from our colleagues. Helping us to prepare. Teamwork. @ACCinTouch #ACCIntl All welcome. From 8-10 EDT. Today March 18.heartm.docbook.com.cn/#/meeting_noti… #COVID19
@ACCinTouch Chinese colleagues making strong point about the asymptomatic transmission. Bin Cao emphasizing the importance of using the N95 masks. For healthcare workers. [Implication: importance for us to solve the shortage problem - he is giving a warning; talking about risk to HCWs.]
@ACCinTouch Chinese colleagues sharing clinical features of #COVID19; one distinctive thing is that dry cough common; but little difference in presentation with flu. In Wuhan experience… 12% had acute cardiac injury. 7% acute kidney injury.
Read 21 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #China will cut export rebate rates to 13% and 9%, respectively, for exports that enjoyed 16% and 10% rebate rates in accordance with value-added tax cuts effective April 1, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.
*Link (Chinese): bit.ly/2Tr5h3o
🇨🇳 #China is extending a public holiday to get people to travel and spend more as the government pins its hopes on a vast consumer base to help cushion an economic slowdown - Reuters
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
🇨🇳 #China Regulator Says Financial Markets Can Open More Quickly - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 167 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets

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