Is there some other variable, besides "lockdown" that the models are not seeing?
Both countries are in almost complete lockdown, with their govts counting on limited social interactions to help contain the spread of the disease. Prime Minister Sanchez convened an emergency cabinet meeting to try to chart a way out of the crisis rapidly engulfing the nation
Perhaps there are two effects. The deaths caused by the epidemic itself and that caused by the deterioration in services effected by prolonged lockdown. At the outset with the system still full of momentum the virus effect dominates. Later entropy catches up.
