“We downgraded our quarterly GDP growth estimates for the second quarter to -17% and, more important, for the third quarter to -7.3%.”
"International efforts at social distancing have shuttered industries accounting for about 30% of private-sector jobs, around 35 million, they said. Food services, recreation, air travel and casinos represent 11.6% of private sector employment and 8.4% of personal consumption." 
"We expect some of these businesses to reopen during the late second quarter, but we believe the pace is going to be slower than that anticipated by those forecasting a big third quarter bounce."
"There is no obvious ‘all clear’ signal; and the longer the shutdown goes on, many more of these shuttered small businesses may not reopen at all.
"This builds the case for strong second-round effects, that is, increased numbers of personal and business bankruptcies adding to the loss of purchasing power in the economy just from the first round of job losses."
Importantly, TS Lombard’s slump forecast is conservative.
