Thread by @hopeseekr

@ScottAdamsSays @ScottAdamsSays There seem to be three paths:
1. Most common: Virus becomes far less deadly and we live w/ the losses (1918 flu -> 2009 Swine Flu)
2. ~500 years: Virus mutates to super deadly and kills itself off (Black Death, Plague of Justinian)
3. Vaccines & mass innoculation

@ScottAdamsSays forbes.com/sites/stevensa…

@ScottAdamsSays The three major problems we have are

1. If China is to be believed, then the virus has already become more deadly (look @ Iran and Italy CFRs of 13 & 15% vs China's 2.5% [which I disbelieve]).

2. Black death was over 654 years ago.

3. Lots of antivaxxers.

#coronavirus

@ScottAdamsSays RNA viruses like the Flu and #Covid19 #Coronavirus are very easy to mutate, especially compared to the DNA Yersinia Pestis (Black Death).

Black Death needed ~8.5 million before it became a super killer. (8.5 × 10− 6 to 3.7 × 10− 4) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@ScottAdamsSays RNA viruses like the Flu and #Covid19 #Coronavirus are very easy to mutate, especially compared to the DNA Yersinia Pestis (Black Death).

Black Death needed ~8.5 million before it became a super killer. (8.5 × 10− 6 to 3.7 × 10− 4) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@ScottAdamsSays #SARSCoV v1.0 has a mutation rate of just 0.80 – 2.38 × 10-3, or 6.2x to 100x more ready to mutate, but I'm not sure my math is right. Not a virologist.

But #coronavirus es do mutate a lot more readily as they're RNA. It's why a vaccine will be tough.

bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…