1/ In October 2019 Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security simulated a coronavirus pandemic. This exercise was called the event 201 scenario: centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scena…
2/ They simulated an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus that jumped from bats to humans. The virus and the disease it caused were modeled largely on SARS, but it was more transmissible and caused milder symptoms.
3/ It spread across the world leading to a severe pandemic. At first some countries were able to control it but it continued to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country could maintain control.
4/ There was no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There was a fictional antiviral drug that could help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.
5/ The whole human population was susceptible and during the initial months of the pandemic, the number of cases increased exponentially, doubling every week.
6/ The simulation ended at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. Although the pandemic was slowing, it would continue until an effective vaccine was developed or 80-90% of the global population was infected.
7/ In the post-pandemic period, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.
8/ Event 201 scenario is not the story of the the COVID-19 pandemic, but it could be. That possibility should be enough reason for all of us to do everything we can to mitigate as much suffering as is possible.
9/ This pandemic might be the most significant event in the lives of all those who survive it. It might not because a future pandemic due to an avian influenza virus or some recombinant form of the same might be far more devastating and therefore more significant.
10/ Much like earthquakes, pandemics are a force of nature and nature’s designs are not limited by human arrogance or self-importance. SARS-CoV2 is following its own plan. Meanwhile much of humanity is happy to embrace the proverbial bliss of ignorance.
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