Who wants to earn extra credit in Twitter Law school?
A math problem.
If Sanders voters are 30-40% of the voters in the Democratic primary, and if 15% those voters will vote for Trump in the general election . . .
A math problem.
If Sanders voters are 30-40% of the voters in the Democratic primary, and if 15% those voters will vote for Trump in the general election . . .
. . .that 15% is what percentage of general election voters?
Before you panic over the numbers (49% / 47%) experts* tell us that Trump's numbers are artificially high right now because we're at the start of a crisis.
* @NateSilver538, @RachelBitecofer, @KevinMKruse.
Before you panic over the numbers (49% / 47%) experts* tell us that Trump's numbers are artificially high right now because we're at the start of a crisis.
* @NateSilver538, @RachelBitecofer, @KevinMKruse.
Why do you think I'm offering extra credit? To entice math people to do the work.
Someone said 2-3% of the general election voters.
If that's true, it means it only matters in a close election.
So we need to make sure it isn't close.
Someone said 2-3% of the general election voters.
If that's true, it means it only matters in a close election.
So we need to make sure it isn't close.
This is precisely why I'm not worried about how high Trump's number is right now (47%)
In 2018, the Democrats won by 8 percentage points.
For several years now the demographics have gotten steadily worse for the GOP.
My point here is that. . .
In 2018, the Democrats won by 8 percentage points.
For several years now the demographics have gotten steadily worse for the GOP.
My point here is that. . .
. . . if the Democrats meet or exceed what they did in 2018, and there's no reason they won't, we don't have to worry about this very small group, some of whom reject certain tenants of democracy anyway.
Remember: Democracy will be on the ballot in November 2020.
Remember: Democracy will be on the ballot in November 2020.
*tenets not tenants
Those keyboard gremlins are at it again.
Those keyboard gremlins are at it again.
I also want to remind people that Bernie Sanders has a very inspiring message.
I suspect that the 85% of Bernie supporters who will vote for Biden in the general were attracted to Bernie because of his inspiring message.
I suspect that the 85% of Bernie supporters who will vote for Biden in the general were attracted to Bernie because of his inspiring message.
I think the idea here⤵️ is if that small percentage are concentrated in deep blue states, the worry is even less.
It would seem they are (speaking as a Californian)
So we shouldn't worry about this.
We should focus on getting out the Democratic vote.
It would seem they are (speaking as a Californian)
So we shouldn't worry about this.
We should focus on getting out the Democratic vote.
I like this one! (Lawyer picks the prettiest math answer)
1.38% of general election voters (probably in deep blue states)
By "don't worry" I mean don't have Twitter fights. It isn't worth it. Biden will (I'm sure) do what he can to expand his coalition.
1.38% of general election voters (probably in deep blue states)
By "don't worry" I mean don't have Twitter fights. It isn't worth it. Biden will (I'm sure) do what he can to expand his coalition.
Nope, I didn't say this.
I said the people panicked that Bernie supporters will (and can) throw the election to Trump can stop worrying.
I also said that Bernie has an inspiring message and Biden will do what he can to enlarge his coalition.
I said the people panicked that Bernie supporters will (and can) throw the election to Trump can stop worrying.
I also said that Bernie has an inspiring message and Biden will do what he can to enlarge his coalition.
