1/OK, to take a break from coronavirus, here's a brief thread about the future of the American Left.
To some this will seem like concern-trolling, and to others it will seem stupid, but hear me out and see what you think...
To some this will seem like concern-trolling, and to others it will seem stupid, but hear me out and see what you think...
2/The Bernie Sanders Revolution is over, but Bernie has generated a wave of enthusiasm for leftist ideas and causes among the youth. The danger is that electoral losses dissipate that enthusiasm and the youth go back to waxing their moustaches and making small-batch chocolate...
3/Some of the leaders who emerged from the leftist moment that Bernie created will choose to work within the Democratic Party and push it leftward, as Ted Kennedy did. That is a perfectly legitimate and admirable strategy, but it's not the only one.
politico.com/news/2020/03/3…
politico.com/news/2020/03/3…
4/Many on the left now reject the Democratic party, viewing it as irreparably captured by a corrupt establishment. (I think this is wrong but whatever, who cares.) 
5/Bernie's idea was to take on that establishment from inside the party. An internal revolution.
That idea has failed.
That idea has failed.
6/The obvious alternative is to start a third party.
But as everyone knows, this is a recipe for disaster. Remember Nader? Third party candidates throw presidential elections to the opposition. It's a law of politics.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%…
But as everyone knows, this is a recipe for disaster. Remember Nader? Third party candidates throw presidential elections to the opposition. It's a law of politics.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%…
7/But note: This only applies to PRESIDENTIAL elections.
In CONGRESS, third parties work just fine.
The Social Democratic Party could cooperate with the Democratic Party in Congress. Parliamentary coalisions don't choose the chief executive, but they work in Congress.
In CONGRESS, third parties work just fine.
The Social Democratic Party could cooperate with the Democratic Party in Congress. Parliamentary coalisions don't choose the chief executive, but they work in Congress.
8/There is a precedent for this: The way the Republicans took control from the Whigs in the 1850s.
The GOP won the Presidency in 1860, but it first went after Congressional seats in 1854. And won many, even as the Whigs continued to exist.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/34th_Unit…
The GOP won the Presidency in 1860, but it first went after Congressional seats in 1854. And won many, even as the Whigs continued to exist.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/34th_Unit…
9/The drawback to the Congress-First Strategy is that it would make it very hard for progressives to win presidential nominations within the Democratic Party, because so many would out-migrate to the new SDP, and Dem stalwarts would hate them for the split.
10/So the success of the Congress-First Strategy and the Social Democratic Party would hinge on the Dems' rapid crumbling. This is what happened to the Whigs, who fell apart within a few years after the Republican Party's emergence.
11/Alternatively, the SDP could simply set modest goals, aiming for a slow takeover of Congress and eschewing the Presidency for the foreseeable future. This would reduce animosity and friction with the Dems. But it would result in less progressive Dem presidential candidates.
12/In any case, if people on the Left really think that the Democratic Party is irredeemable and can't be reformed in a progressive direction from within, there really is nothing for them to do but form a Social Democratic Party and try to win Congressional and state elections.
13/Personally I think that most of the theories about the corruption of the Democratic establishment are wrong, and that Bernie lost because most of the Democratic primary electorate is just too comfortable for a Revolution of any sort. But many Leftists disagree with me...
14/In any case, with Bernie's "internal revolution" approach having failed, the Left needs to come up with a new theory of change.
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