Italy had 1600 infected on March 1. Today it has 1 lakh.
India has 1600 on April 1. If we follow Italian trajectory and isolation (remember balcony singing last month) we will be at 1 lakh on April 30.
But Italy tests 250 times more than India
India has 1600 on April 1. If we follow Italian trajectory and isolation (remember balcony singing last month) we will be at 1 lakh on April 30.
But Italy tests 250 times more than India
Most infected won’t be tested because they either don’t come under Govt testing protocol (foreign travel, close associate, symptoms) or will not feel ill enough. But they will continue to spread infection.
It’s possible our April 30 count may be many times higher than Italy’s
It’s possible our April 30 count may be many times higher than Italy’s
Most people infected by Coronavirus will not know they’re infected. Symptoms may be a slight fever and mild cough or even no noticeable symptom. Will go in a few days. But in that period will still be infectious and continue to pass it on. That’s why impossible to stop spread
Italy had its first case same date as India (end January). But Indian escalation has not followed same trajectory. Either
- it has and we don’t know
or
- it hasn’t because of social distancing/lockdown
- it hasn’t because of unknown reasons (weather etc)
- it has and we don’t know
or
- it hasn’t because of social distancing/lockdown
- it hasn’t because of unknown reasons (weather etc)
As India relaxes protocol and tests those asymptomatic and unrelated to foreign travel we will likely see sharp spike in number of cases. That may not necessarily be a sign of faster spread. More likely it will be our information aligning closer to reality.
