NIGERIA: THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND ITS AFTERMATH
“To speak or not to speak”, might well be PMB’s prerogative nevertheless it is a red herring. The real and urgent debate Nigerians ought to be having is the possible negative economic impact of COVID-19.
A few prefatory remarks
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“To speak or not to speak”, might well be PMB’s prerogative nevertheless it is a red herring. The real and urgent debate Nigerians ought to be having is the possible negative economic impact of COVID-19.
A few prefatory remarks
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Overall, the COVID-19 impact on the advanced countries has been devastating.
And launching the 5th round of QE, it has earmarked $Trillions in the form of subsidies and intervention funds. Massive industry bailouts and expansion in social safety net programs likely to follow. 2/
And launching the 5th round of QE, it has earmarked $Trillions in the form of subsidies and intervention funds. Massive industry bailouts and expansion in social safety net programs likely to follow. 2/
The massive economic disruptions caused by COVID-19 pandemic worldwide is expected to continue into the near future.
Currently, the US has extended lockdowns until April 30, and the UK is projecting a minimum of 6 months for return to normalcy. 3/
Currently, the US has extended lockdowns until April 30, and the UK is projecting a minimum of 6 months for return to normalcy. 3/
The IMF has announced a global recession and promised to make funds available for struggling economies
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@asemota believes there will be no official end to the fear engendered by the crisis meaning that they’ll continue to have a direct bearing on state policy (perpetual survival mode) making protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies the new norm (the end of globalization?) 5/
The Nigerian political economy was in a parlous state, even before COVID-19 with a spluttering economy and a state struggling with a massive debt overhang (debt service at 65% of revenues) and rapidly dwindling revenues (according to one report, 50% YoY decline in Jan/Feb).
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All set against the backdrop of seemingly intractable security challenges 7/
The price of crude, the mainstay of the country’s revenue has been in a free fall (currently $20 p/b) and the slump will likely persist for sometime to come. This means that the FGN will struggle to meet its debt service and other current account obligations as they fall due. 8/
As a corollary effect, monthly FAAC allocations will drop precipitously and States may subsequently not be able to meet their debt service and other current account obligations. 9/
IGR will be no bargain since the ensuing global recession would be likely to have an overall fatalistic impact on local enterprises causing massive losses and attendant layoffs and throwing a large percentage of the workforce into a bottomless pool of the unemployed. 10/
With no social safety net more and more citizens will be caught in the poverty trap with significant repercussions for crime and instability (Nigeria is already the world’s poverty capital. Even the 20% of the population with $200+ monthly income will be negatively impacted). 11/
Let’s make no mistake about it, the impact on Nigeria and SSA will be most likely traumatic. The West will focus on rebuilding their own economies and access to cheap capital will dry up.
@alykhansatchu projects a 20% contraction for SSA. 12/
@alykhansatchu projects a 20% contraction for SSA. 12/
A note for note takers- A govt that cannot pay its bills, fund and maintain the instruments that ensures it’s monopoly on violence and or service the usual clientele is known as a failed state 13/
Nigeria’s purblind and irresponsible political class, an inept and underwhelming leadership and a society too divided and lacking in shared consciousness and purposiveness or shared ethos is in no position to bear the pain and penalties of an unavoidable structural adjustment 14/
The govt has taken a crucial first step to mitigate the situation by appointing the VP @ProfOsinbajo as head of economic sustainability
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But @profosibanjo ‘s task is not one for bureaucrats and career politicians. He needs to quickly assemble our best people. Brainiacs. Thinkers. Innovators. Entrepreneurs. Artistes, etc.
From where ever in the world they can be found. /16
From where ever in the world they can be found. /16
And by this we mean people who have created tangible value in their fields (not those who have spent their lives supported by the State).
Experts. Young and old. Lock them in a room and challenge them to come up the solution to chart the path in which we ought to go. /17
Experts. Young and old. Lock them in a room and challenge them to come up the solution to chart the path in which we ought to go. /17
Some examples- Bayo Ogunlesi, SLS, Okonjo-Iweala, Salami, Rewane, Soludo, (Finance); @seyiamakinde Peter Obi, Elumelu, Dangote, @akinalabi (Entrepreneurship); @afalli (Infrastructure); @asemota (IT); Chris Amenechi (ex-VP United- Aviation); Omoboriowo II (Ind Energy) etc. etc
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And you have a surfeit of brilliant young minds to choose from - @Chxta , @ayosogunro , @cchukudebelu , @segalink , the brilliant innovators who came up with @farmcrowdy , livestock247.com, kobo360, etc etc.
Knowledge is the new global currency of exchange. Tap it.
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Knowledge is the new global currency of exchange. Tap it.
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Nigerians can be found in many leadership role in many spheres all over the world. Find them and deputize Nasir El-Rufai to lead a 2-week retreat in Obudu. He has a prodigious intellect.
This is no time for petty politics.
We need to put our best foot forward 20/
This is no time for petty politics.
We need to put our best foot forward 20/
An earlier reminder:
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