I've been training for something like this for 10 years. I've been doing outreach, posting, publishing and now I'm asking you:
Don't listen to modelers right now. Don't try to understand the full range of good and bad science.
Right now, every single person with my training is doing this work. I can't even keep up with it.
I promise it is, really, as bad as it seems.
or as an expert on epidemiological models,
or as a scientist working with policymakers,
but as someone who has watched friends and loved ones coordinate the response to this and be utterly crushed in the wave.
Stay inside. Follow the rules. Wash your hands. Look out for your loved ones & your community, and do your best to keep COVID from spreading. Keep on.