Core message: try to learn from the current #COVID19
Not just about pandemics, but [long tail of] risks, misinformation,… we all will need it, including yourself, then extrapolate/transfer
There are many lessons here, pick preferably the best ones, and act on them
Thread
Not just about pandemics, but [long tail of] risks, misinformation,… we all will need it, including yourself, then extrapolate/transfer
There are many lessons here, pick preferably the best ones, and act on them
Thread
Intelligence is not just in our brain, but in our laws, protocols, culture,…
Mistakes were and are being made. What can we learn from those who did best? 🇨🇳🇰🇷…
More importantly: what can we extrapolate to do better in the next "unforseen" disaster or even prevent or avoid it?
Mistakes were and are being made. What can we learn from those who did best? 🇨🇳🇰🇷…
More importantly: what can we extrapolate to do better in the next "unforseen" disaster or even prevent or avoid it?
When the situation is under control, the panic will be over, and there will be more urgent but less important matters to focus on, neglecting preparation
Now #StayAtHome and #FlattenTheCurve, but remember, we must also #LearnAndPrepare, when possible, before it is too late again
Now #StayAtHome and #FlattenTheCurve, but remember, we must also #LearnAndPrepare, when possible, before it is too late again
Each death is a tragedy. To everyone losing someone they love, I am very sorry for your loss, it cannot be repaired
Thus, we must do our best to prevent similar deaths from happening in the future, and stop the preventable deaths happening in the present
slate.com/technology/202…
Thus, we must do our best to prevent similar deaths from happening in the future, and stop the preventable deaths happening in the present
slate.com/technology/202…
The current #COVID19 was not entirely unexpected, preparation was possible and necessary
Many, including @BillGates warned a virus could kill 10M, in the simulation 30M die. Hopefully, less will do
What does it take to get attention and action, though?
Many, including @BillGates warned a virus could kill 10M, in the simulation 30M die. Hopefully, less will do
What does it take to get attention and action, though?
We have to learn, individually and as a society
- For existential risks there are no second chances
- Similar pandemics are expected to happen more often in the future
- Many preventable deaths happening today
- More could be preventable with research
- For existential risks there are no second chances
- Similar pandemics are expected to happen more often in the future
- Many preventable deaths happening today
- More could be preventable with research
We can consider a virus as a drill, a warning, a [stress] test. Without panic; do not ignore drills. Workers lose valuable productivity hours, but it pays off
WHO must maintain credibility, not overreact. Governments should, out of an abundance of caution, be prepared, act early
WHO must maintain credibility, not overreact. Governments should, out of an abundance of caution, be prepared, act early
#WeAreAtWar always, #COVID19 is just a battle
Let me summarize a few levels at which learning happens
1. Innate immune systems will learn, gain immunity; should make it less contagious over time
This is one of the good things that happen without much action on our side
Let me summarize a few levels at which learning happens
1. Innate immune systems will learn, gain immunity; should make it less contagious over time
This is one of the good things that happen without much action on our side
2. Science will learn about #COVID19 and pandemics, improving at addressing them, incl. vaccines
More science and technology should improve as a side effect, in a chain reaction
Data is good; let us try to be efficient to collect less pain with the data
forbes.com/sites/bernardm…
More science and technology should improve as a side effect, in a chain reaction
Data is good; let us try to be efficient to collect less pain with the data
forbes.com/sites/bernardm…
3. Our societies may learn about the importance of health, science, and technology, allocating funding and resources accordingly, resulting in a better alignment of axiology and economics towards health, equality, and well-being
#WeAreAllInThisTogether
bankinfosecurity.com/openssl-gets-f…
#WeAreAllInThisTogether
bankinfosecurity.com/openssl-gets-f…
4. Citizens may learn specifics: masks, self-isolation, *vaccines*,…
More importantly: to keep their politicians accountable, fight misinformation
The post-truth may lead to new dark ages, react early to a new enlightenment
Science, data, transparency,… let us find a vaccine
More importantly: to keep their politicians accountable, fight misinformation
The post-truth may lead to new dark ages, react early to a new enlightenment
Science, data, transparency,… let us find a vaccine
5. Society may learn about the long tail of unlikely risks and that they deserve more attention, prevention, mitigation,…
No 2nd chances for existential risks, we better learn with less harmful events, extrapolate or transfer that knowledge, 1st hand experience will be too late
No 2nd chances for existential risks, we better learn with less harmful events, extrapolate or transfer that knowledge, 1st hand experience will be too late
6. Society may learn how to coordinate large long term efforts, shift focus from the urgent to the important
Self-improvement is key for sustainable increases in intelligence. We could use a more conscious design on the intelligence emerging from our society to better serve us
Self-improvement is key for sustainable increases in intelligence. We could use a more conscious design on the intelligence emerging from our society to better serve us
Big problems: [epistemic] principle of least effort, tragedy of the commons, 2nd order thinking,…
A hard nut, but learning, science, predictions,… are closely related: try to predict the future, consider difference of cost in T1 & T2 errors, train often, use wisely when needed
A hard nut, but learning, science, predictions,… are closely related: try to predict the future, consider difference of cost in T1 & T2 errors, train often, use wisely when needed
