The two-day drop in new coronavirus cases in New York is great news. The three questions now, as I've discussed here, are these:
1⃣ Is this the far side of the apex?
2⃣ Is the apex actually a long plateau?
3⃣ Will national numbers keep rising, as new outbreaks emerge elsewhere?
1⃣ Is this the far side of the apex?
2⃣ Is the apex actually a long plateau?
3⃣ Will national numbers keep rising, as new outbreaks emerge elsewhere?
PS/ In Italy, the "apex" was actually a long plateau: about 20 days of 4,000+ new cases daily, which seems to have ended today—3,599 new cases. Of course, we're broadly discovering that both new-case numbers and death tolls are being understated due to the chaos of the situation.
PS2/ In the U.S., even as new-case numbers in NYC have dropped two days in a row—and we all hope they continue to!—it's not clear the death toll will be flat, as it's a lagging indicator that's based on new-case numbers from two to two and a half weeks ago, not recent infections.
PS3/ If you look at Worldometers, you'll also see that the drop in cases in NYC has been accompanied by *increases* nearly everywhere else—from Pennsylvania to Florida to Georgia to Indiana to North Carolina. Some are significant rises, but *may* amount to less than the NYC drop.
PS4/ If, as we all hope, the NYC drop is so big it dwarfs rises elsewhere—meaning that the total national figures are on a slope downward—we enter into a new phase of danger: Trump prematurely telling people to go back to normal and ignoring the near-certainty of a fall outbreak.
PS5/ But even that worry is premature, as yesterday's "lower" new-infection tally was still over 25,000—more than four times the second-worst-hit country in the world. We will be seeing the death-toll effect from *these* worldwide-high new infections for weeks and weeks to come.
PS6/ I can't emphasize enough how dangerous I think Trump is. His rhetoric is *more* dangerous in the latter stages of the COVID-19 outbreak than in the early stages—as his "feel-good" propaganda lulls us into a false sense of security that could spawn a *new* explosion in cases.
PS7/ And of course Trump won't acknowledge the simple fact that *all* the numbers we're seeing are low—undercounts. Because we're still not testing enough, and 25%-50% of people are asymptomatic, and we're not doing post-mortem testing... we *don't* know how bad this *really* is.
PS8/ That's bad enough. But I've noticed even the *medical experts* surrounding Trump are so desperate to get on Trump's good-news train that they *too* jump the gun at even the *slightest* sign of hope—perhaps not realizing they too can lull folks into ceasing social distancing.
PS9/ Already I'm hearing too many folks imply they think the end of April could signal the end of the worst of the outbreak. But *many* places are slated to hit their "apex"—or worse, a *plateau* lasting days/weeks—in May or June. And we haven't even discussed "second waves" yet.
PS10/ And now that medical experts say COVID-19 will be a seasonal affliction, the question remains: if America "re-opens" in August, but everyone knows September may bring a "second wave"—still without a vaccine—how many will want to return to normal for just that 30-day period?
UPSHOT/ Celebrate any and all good news. But distinguish between celebrating good news and deciding that it's an indicator of...well, anything. I think Governor Cuomo is doing a good job of taking this approach—but it's not clear that nearly anyone in the federal government will.
