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notanumber_6

16 Jul 20, 7 tweets, 7 min read

Our world is not environmentally #sustainable: The #EcologicalFootprint, which equals EF per person multiplied by #population, of the current (2016) world population of 7.5 billion uses the biological capacity of 1.7 Earths.

The maximum #sustainable #population at our current EF per person is only 4.4 billion. The maximum that would give everyone the current #QualityOfLife in the US, as measured by the UN’s #HumanDevelopmentIndex, is only 2.6 billion.

Since the start of EF tracking (1961), 83% of our #growth in EF has been caused by #population growth and only 17% by growth in personal #consumption (EF per person).

Projecting the same increases in EF per person and in biological capacity (due to improved #technology) since 1970 forward to 2060, the EF will be even larger, using 1.9 Earths. And 97% of that EF #growth will be caused by #population growth to 10.2 billion.

And that assumes that fertility rates in countries with higher fertility rates will decline; the UN projects world #population to grow to 11.7 billion by 2060 if they don’t.

We could become #sustainable by 2060 if we voluntarily reduce our #population to its 1990 size of 5.3 billion. That means encouraging countries with higher fertility rates to reduce their fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

We have an overdue moral obligation to our descendants to stop and ultimately reverse our #population #growth until our world is environmentally #sustainable.

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More from @notanumber_6

notanumber_6

@notanumber_6

20 Jul 20

In developed #countries, #government policies to restrict private behavior in response to #COVID-19 have had no effect in reducing #deaths at all. Excess all-cause mortality is actually associated, though insignificantly, with increasing restrictiveness.

In developed #countries, #deaths caused by #COVID-19 have had no — zero – correlation with #government policies of increasing restrictiveness such as #lockdowns.

Given the statistical #evidence, it is reasonable to infer, in the absence of contrary statistical evidence, that increasing restrictiveness does not decrease mortality. Any assumption or assertion that it does is not following the #science – and #ScienceMatters.

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notanumber_6

@notanumber_6

17 Jul 20

#BlackLivesMatter #WhitePrivilege #SystemicRacism #FactCheck (1/4): On #violent #crime (except murder) by #race using DoJ’s NCVS data for 2018 (latest year available):
1. A black was only 0.81 times as likely as a white to be a violent crime victim.

#BlackLivesMatter #WhitePrivilege #SystemicRacism #FactCheck (2/4):
2. A black was 2.3 times more likely than a white to commit a #violent #crime.
3. A black was 47.4 times more #dangerous to a white than a white was to a black.

#BlackLivesMatter #WhitePrivilege #SystemicRacism #FactCheck (3/4)

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notanumber_6

@notanumber_6

16 Jul 20

The world is causing #GlobalWarming through excessive #CO2 #emissions: The #CarbonFootprint, which equals CF per person multiplied by #population, of the current (2016) world population of 7.5 billion uses the carbon sequestration capacity of 2.4 Earths.

The maximum #sustainable (“#CarbonNeutral”) #population at our current CF per person is only 3.1 billion. The maximum that would give everyone the current #QualityOfLife in the US, as measured by the UN’s #HumanDevelopmentIndex, is only 2 billion.

Since the start of CF tracking (1961), 64% of our #growth in CF has been caused by #population growth and only 36% by growth in personal #emissions (CF per person).

Read 7 tweets

notanumber_6

@notanumber_6

16 Jul 20

The US is causing #GlobalWarming through excessive #CO2 #emissions: The #CarbonFootprint, which equals CF per person multiplied by #population, of the current (2016) US population of 323 million uses the carbon sequestration capacity of 3.7 Americas.

The maximum #sustainable (“#CarbonNeutral”) #population at our current CF per person is only 87 million. The maximum that would maintain our current #QualityOfLife, as measured by the UN’s #HumanDevelopmentIndex, is only 195 million.

Since the start of CF tracking (1961), 91% of our #growth in CF has been caused by #population growth and only 9% by growth in personal #emissions (CF per person).

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notanumber_6

@notanumber_6

16 Jul 20

The US is not environmentally #sustainable: The #EcologicalFootprint, which equals EF per person multiplied by #population, of the current (2016) US population of 323 million uses the biological capacity of 2.2 Americas.

The maximum #sustainable #population at our current EF per person is only 145 million. The maximum that would maintain our current #QualityOfLife, as measured by the UN’s #HumanDevelopmentIndex, is only 253 million.

Since the start of EF tracking (1961), our #growth in EF has been caused entirely by #population #growth, more than offsetting a small reduction in our personal #consumption.

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