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Crisis Group
@CrisisGroup
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ #Iran announced it has exceeded the allowable limits of low-enriched uranium as outlined in the #IranNuclearDeal. It has threatened to escalate further next weekend.

What should happen next?
2/ The U.S. and the remaining parties to the #IranNuclearDeal should not overreact.

#Iran's breach is very limited and reversible.
3/ #Iran is not rushing toward a bomb.

If this were the case, we would see the Europeans, #Russia and #China begin activating the deal’s adjudication process and snapping back sanctions. They are not.
4/ While Europe is still working to address #Iran’s economic concerns through #INSTEX, Tehran should not commit more flagrant violations on July 7 that would cause other parties to walk away from the agreement and increase the chances of war.
5/ The #US must tone down its “maximum pressure” approach and freeze the situation by adopting a package involving some sanctions relief so long as Iran comes back into compliance and releases U.S. detainees.

How to stop the cycle of escalation ⇩
foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/02/ira…
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Crisis Group
@CrisisGroup
1/ #Venezuela’s failed uprising has deepened the country's political deadlock and raised the likelihood of domestic or international escalation.

Our statement explains its immediate impact and proposes a way forward.
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…
2/ The revolt appears to have been poorly conceived and easily subdued, leaving National Assembly chair @jguaido and his regional allies, including the #US, looking outmanoeuvred.
3/ On the chavista side of the divide, President #Maduro and his international partners may well feel empowered and emboldened, with little incentive to engage in talks with a disorganised and ineffectual opposition.
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
#BREAKING
#Iran exceed the 300 kg stockpile limit of low enriched uranium (3.67%), according to the IRGC-linked Fars news agency citing an "informed source."

(File Photo)
2)
 "Iran has vowed to begin enriching its stockpile of uranium to higher levels closer to weapons grade later this month..."
#Iran
apnews.com/bcd00046649841…
3)
 "Iran promised as part of the nuclear agreement that it would not store more than 300kg of uranium enriched to the low level of 3.6 per cent fissile material."
#Iran
telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/0…
Read 14 tweets
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Kyle Bass
@Jkylebass
“Iran's threat to exceed the limits on its stockpile of enriched-uranium reveals a fatal flaw in the 2015 nuclear deal that bolsters the need for a fundamental renegotiation of the agreement.”Said leaders of United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI). #iran
“The Iran nuclear deal was fatally flawed form the start.” Said Ambassador Mark Wallace “It left Iran with industrial scale nuclear industry that allowed them to enrich and weaponize at their time of choosing. “Iran’s actions reveal that fatal flaw. #iran
“The ease with which Iran can restart and ramp up its nuclear program should alarm the world. The international community cannot allow Iran to engage in nuclear blackmail without any consequences” Senator Joe Lieberman
Read 3 tweets
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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
A quick explanation on this story -- what it means, what it doesn't mean. This is an interview that @Tasnimnews_Fa did with Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). So, its a public warning.
There is an english version out now. It looks basically the same as the Farsi version, but there are few little differences. tasnimnews.com/en/news/2019/0…
Iran is increasing the pace at which it produces low-enriched uranium, which it is allowed to do under the JCPOA. Iran is not, according to Kamalvandi, increasing the number of centrifuges nor the level of enrichment above 3.67 percent, both of which would violate the JCPOA.
Read 7 tweets
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NCRI-U.S. Rep Office
@NCRIUS
Regarding Terhan’s announcement on the nuclear deal today:
1/12- The remarks by the Iranian regime’s President Hassan Rouhani and the statement by its Supreme National Security Council concerning the refusal to abide by limitations on stockpiling....
#Iran #IranDeal
2/12- … enriched uranium and heavy water are a blatant violation of the nuclear deal with the P5+1 countries and the United Nations Security Council’s resolution 2231.
#Iran #IranDeal
3/12- The development again underscores the need for the complete shutting down of uranium enrichment &heavy water production projects as well as dismantling the regime’s nuclear sites and conducting anytime, anywhere inspections of all suspect sites, military or otherwise.
#Iran
Read 13 tweets
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Mohammad Mohaddessin
@Mohaddessin
1-3 Stockpiling enriched uranium& heavy water are violations of JCPOA & UNSC Resolution 2231. It shows the need to total shut down of enrichment, heavy water &all nuclear sites, exposing military aspects of the nuclear project& snap inspections of all sites more imperative. #Iran
2-3 Subsequent to temporary agreement with P5+1 on Nov. 2013 Mrs. Rajavi said that the full implementation of the #UNSC Resolutions, in particular complete stop of enrichment & free access to the IAEA inspectors are necessary step to prevent mullahs from obtaining the bomb. #Iran
3-3 Iranian people demand ending all of the regime’s nuclear apparatus which is against their interest. It wastes Iran’s resources, destroys its economy. It is a tool to survive religious fascism which is faced with popular outrage and is on the verge of overthrow. #Iran
Read 3 tweets
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Jeff @ themarketswork
@themarketswork
1) Brennan today on Iran.

Bombastic rhetoric against Iran. Need to be smarter, more sophisticated, more strategic.

Worth reminding is the situation Iran found itself facing prior to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – aka the Iranian Nuclear Deal.
state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/i…
2) On February 9, 2010, Iran began the process of producing 20 percent enriched uranium.

This was a crucial step.
nytimes.com/2010/03/09/sci…
3) In response, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1929 on June 9, 2010.
un.org/sc/suborg/en/s…
Read 43 tweets

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