Thread by @CrisisGroup

1/ #Venezuela’s failed uprising has deepened the country's political deadlock and raised the likelihood of domestic or international escalation.

Our statement explains its immediate impact and proposes a way forward.
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…

2/ The revolt appears to have been poorly conceived and easily subdued, leaving National Assembly chair @jguaido and his regional allies, including the #US, looking outmanoeuvred.

3/ On the chavista side of the divide, President #Maduro and his international partners may well feel empowered and emboldened, with little incentive to engage in talks with a disorganised and ineffectual opposition.

4/ While #Venezuela's security forces crushed the uprising easily, underlining the opposition’s inability to dislodge #Maduro, the government has also proved powerless to dislodge its political foes.

5/ #Maduro’s victory notwithstanding, the problems that have plagued the government remain unresolved.

He faces diplomatic isolation, a collapsing economy, and a sanctions regime that has severely curtailed #Venezuela’s oil production.

6/ Venezuela remains in deep crisis. Despite losing the 30 April bout in his struggle for power with #Maduro, #Guaidó remains the country’s legitimate president in the eyes of several dozen nations, while more than a tenth of the population has fled the country.

7/ The clear lesson from the 30 April events is that there can be no “winner-take-all” solution in #Venezuela.

The government controls the security forces, but it cannot fix the economy without a political settlement with the opposition.

8/ There is no evidence that sanctions will bring the chavista government down, and attempts by the opposition to win over elements of the military have failed.

But military intervention still seems unlikely and, if employed, would almost certainly fuel further instability.

9/ As @CrisisGroup has argued, ending #Venezuela’s deadlock and humanitarian crisis needs government-opposition negotiations.

Left to themselves, the two sides won’t compromise.

External actors must overcome divisions to help #Venezuelans compromise and avoid escalation.

10/ In our Statement, we call on all stakeholders to push for:

➤ Inclusive, transitional cabinet
➤ Guarantees to the military on their future role
➤ Presidential elections under a reformed electoral commission and international monitoring.

11/ Without a negotiated solution, the possibility of internal armed confrontation or even outside military intervention remains very real.

It should not be a difficult choice.
crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…