John Quakes Profile picture
25 Feb, 12 tweets, 11 min read
"I'm bullish" said Treva Klingbiel, President of leading #Nuclear fuel consultants TradeTech, who gave a very bullish #Uranium Market update at today's PI Financial Uranium Day webinar.👨‍💻 I'll try to cover her main points in this thread (apologies if I get anything wrong) .../2
2/ Bottom line: New #Uranium mines needed, especially in back half of this decade after idled mines restarted. #U3O8 price tailwinds are depleted reserves, lack of investment, increasingly restricted supply, mounting uncertainty over timely arrival & cost of new mined supply../3
3/ #Uranium Price headwinds are reduced #nuclear demand from potential early reactor retirements, lower costs for (re)emerging mines, stalled utility buying due to market uncertainties, competition from other energy sources. Utility concerns continue to delay procurement .../4
4/ Recent developments: rising concerns over increasingly restricted supply base, #COVID19 took out -19M lbs in 2020 on top of -50M lbs already removed; rising importance of #nuclear as US rejoins Paris Accord; lower cost mine projects emerging, reduced global inventories .../5
5/ #Uranium #stocks have risen on average +125% in past year on strengthening fundamentals, institutions investing in #ESG #CleanEnergy theme via uranium equities on expectations of rising #Nuclear fuel demand in global energy transition, positioning for rising U price .../6
6/ The #Uranium market landscape has changed since the last bull market with different dynamics, catalysts, and rise in ISR production share vs conventional #mining, both of which are needed to meet future demand in an era of increased competition fostering new innovation... /7
7/ The World Needs New #Uranium Mines! By 2035 -75M lbs/yr supply depleted while #Nuclear demand expected to rise by 20M lbs/yr, creating a 100M lbs/yr #U3O8 primary mined deficit in just 14 years. Large new major mines needed to begin production in last half of this decade... /8
8/ An emerging #nuclear renaissance could drive demand even higher as new scenarios unfold, ie. more Japanese reactor restarts, delayed retirements, SMR roll-outs, accelerated reactor builds in China & other nations to meet #NetZero goals= increasing appetite for even more U.../9
9/ #Nuclear utilities must recognize that higher #Uranium prices are necessary to get new mine projects into development to meet demand. Developers expect an average of US$57/lb & shareholders/investors will not support new mine construction unless price expectations are met../10
10/ To attract #nuclear utility customers, #Uranium mine developers must also be innovative at finding new ways to reduce costs and increase their competitiveness, while demonstrating they can deliver new production to meet demand that is timely, low risk and cost effective.../11
11/ Given risks involved in getting new #uranium mine projects into production & mounting uncertainty concerning the timely arrival and cost of ready-to-produce primary supply, Realized Price must adequately support future production to sustain #nuclear fuel supply .../12
12/ In conclusion, the #uranium market is in perpetual annual deficit which reached -40 Million lbs #U3O8 in 2020. The global #nuclear fleet is growing, new mines must be built and the commodity price must respond to address mine production costs in order to meet future demand.🐂

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More from @quakes99

7 Feb
1) With many #Uranium Explorers now actively drilling in #Canada's #AthabascaBasin⛏️ perhaps it's time⏳ for a thread on how to interpret drill data coming soon🔜 in news releases.📰 Misunderstanding data can lead to premature exit... selling when ya shoulda been buying.🛒 🥴
2) #Uranium explorers drill rock core samples looking for signs of #U3O8 bearing ore.🧐 Rarely do they ever hit high-grade on first few attempts.😟 Geologists first look for visual signs in the core samples... here's description from pre-discovery 2013 drilling at Arrow (Rook 1):
3) Visual inspection of core samples is just 1 of many steps taken to see if they found #uranium. Presence of radioactivity is best indicator so all cores are scanned with an instrument called a Hand-held Scintillometer to produce "Scint" CPS tables for cores from each hole.🌡️
Read 11 tweets
28 Jan
Excellent TD #Uranium presentation by Grant Isaac of Cameco $CCO $CCJ today (replay coming). Here are some points:
- Cigar remains down, no restart date yet or estimate on rate of production recovery after it restarts
- SWU/Conversion robust⤴️ & expect U price to follow↗️
.../2
2/ - On-market term contracting not there yet but Off-market pipeline is back to pre-Fukushima levels
- Substantial uncovered demand with #nuclear utilities so far purchasing just 20% of needs. Delayed contracting will lead to more rapid price rise when contracting heats up
.../3
3/ - Cameco is not looking to increase their contracting beyond current 20M lbs/yr over next 5 years as that would force them to buy more Spot market material = Strategic patience
- 2020 global production down to 120M lbs & 2021 supply risk (COVID) greater than demand risk
.../4
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct 20
#Uranium Market Update in a nutshell🥜 #U3O8 continues to be a best performing commodity of 2020, up 25% YTD, up 69% from its bottom in November 2016.🐂📈 #Nuclear power growth remains robust ⚛️🏗️↗️ Demand at 182M lbs/yr & rising, Supply deficit ~60M lbs, -317M lbs by 2026⛏️⏬🗜️
#Uranium has strong #bullish outlook 🐂🔮 #Nuclear utility contracting has been below normal for past 8 yrs. Re-stocking cycle overdue with growing uncovered demand & delayed Long-term contracting since 2012.⌛️
With such strong #Uranium supply/demand fundamentals, why is #U3O8 market rebalance taking so long? 🤔 Trade Issues, Russian Suspension Agreement, #COVID19 have sidelined #nuclear utilities BUT trade issues nearing resolution, utilities getting back to work, #China going all-in🏗️
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep 20
Yee-Haw!🤠 Breaking #Uranium News!📰 US Commerce & #Russia's Rosatom have initialed a Draft Amendment to the Russia Suspension Agreement setting out new provisions, limits & terms of extension.📜 Commerce soliciting comments by 28 September. Download here:
app.box.com/s/a2jclok4se78… Image
11 September 2020 - Initial Draft Amendment to Russian Suspension Agreement - Pages 1 to 4 of 8... #Uranium #mining #nuclear #USA #Russia
app.box.com/s/a2jclok4se78… ImageImageImageImage
11 September 2020 - Initialed Draft Amendment to Russian Suspension Agreement - Pages 5 to 8 of 8. #Uranium #mining #nuclear #USA #Russia
app.box.com/s/a2jclok4se78… ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
27 Aug 20
Kazatomprom 1H20 Financial Results 💰 World's largest #Uranium producer has released its Financial & Operations Review for H1 2020 & held a 1-hour Conference Call with Q&A. 💻 Market responding positively with trading Up a tad near 52-week high👍 kazatomprom.kz/en/media/view/… Image
#Kazakhstan's #Uranium production was down -3% in first 6 months of 2020, down -7% attributable to , as #COVID19 slowdown to be primarily felt in H2 as per previous 2020 Guidance. CAPEX down -38% vs H1 2019 due to #COVID19 suspensions.⛏️↘️ Details: kazatomprom.kz/storage/2e/ofr… Image
Here are some Slides from Kazatomprom 's Conference Call. Excellent presentation with detailed coverage of ISR #Uranium production timelines, impact of #COVID19. 😷⛏️↘️ As of today, workers now back on site beginning drilling & wellfield operations after 4-month halt. ImageImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
16 Aug 20
1) With many #Uranium Explorers now actively drilling in #Canada's #AthabascaBasin, perhaps it's time⏳ for a thread on how to interpret drill data coming soon 🔜 in news releases.📰 Misunderstanding data can lead to premature exit... selling🦬 when you shoulda been buying🛍️ Image
2) #Uranium explorers drill rock core samples looking for signs of #U3O8 bearing ore.🧐 Rarely do they ever hit high-grade on first few attempts.😟 Geologists first look for visual signs in the core samples.. here's description from pre-discovery 2013 drilling at Arrow (Rook 1): ImageImageImage
3) Visual inspection of core samples is just 1 of many steps taken to see if they found #uranium. Presence of radioactivity is best indicator so all cores are scanned with an instrument called a Hand-held Scintillometer to produce "Scint" CPS tables for cores from each hole.🌡️ ImageImageImageImage
Read 10 tweets

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