Thread by @DavidLat

1/ Will Justice Breyer retire from the Supreme Court sometime soon?

His law clerk hiring says, to quote the Magic 8 ball: "Most likely."

bit.ly/3t4GXqt #SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

2/ In this lengthy post for Original Jurisdiction, I take a deep dive into the clerk hiring patterns of the past four #SCOTUS justices to retire, as well Justice Breyer's own past practice, and conclude that there's an 80-20 percent chance he'll retire soon.

3/ My post contains shout-outs to, among others, @LindaHirshman1 @adamliptak @OrinKerr @DahliaLithwick @marksherman @shermancourt @NinaTotenberg. #SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

4/ UPDATE: Working on confirming a third possible Breyer hire, please stand by.... #SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

5/ Hired by Justice Breyer for OT 2021: Erika Hoglund (@StanfordLaw 2019 / Thomas / Chhabria (N.D. Cal.)).

Erika was hired within the past few weeks, and she was his fourth and final hire for OT 2021.

#scotus #appellatetwitter

6/ Upon information and belief, the “missing” Breyer hire is a woman who graduated from @YaleLawSch.

If you have her info, please email me: [e-mail].

#SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

7/ This completely changes my analysis, especially since Erika was hired within the last month.

A Breyer retirement? Magic 8 ball now says, “Don’t count on it.”

#SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

8/ My new bottom line: 70-30 chance that Breyer stays at #SCOTUS for at least another Term. #appellatetwitter

Sorry, @WeDemandJustice.....

https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1380523176791248896

9/ For its part, the @WhiteHouse says that it isn't putting any pressure on Justice Breyer to retire. More here from @ben___leonard for @Politico (quoting @jrpsaki).

politi.co/3t8e1y4 #SCOTUS #appellatetwitter #politics