Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jun 9, 2021 17 tweets 20 min read Read on X
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.

This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Here you see the bigger picture including storms on the Red Sea and a low heading north past Portugal.
10-Day rainfall forecasts for June 9th of the #HornOfAfrica including, #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

The models are gradually moving back into alignment & big rains may be coming soon >> Thread
48 hour rainfall forecasts for June 9th of the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.
Here is an animation of the weather earlier this evening/afternoon showing the clouds building across South Sudan & Ethiopia as night falls. Further north the storms forming around Makkah are notable.

#Mecca #Rain
And now for a roundup of storm videos from @Arab_Storms

The first is from Saudi Arabia today.
Shortly I'll provide a close up animation of the storm approaching Makkah here's a video from earlier in Taif. I love the guy on the bike!

This one is not of a storm but it is amazing.....
10-Day June 9th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour June 9th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain
And finally, June 9th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.
Rain clouds are currently over the holy city of Mecca as the faithful gather to pray the evening prayers.
Mecca / Makkah from above tonight. It looks like it is surrounded by a butterfly.

Notably, the average rainfall for Mecca / Makkah in June is none.
Here is a video of the thunderstorms building up earlier over Taif and moving north to Mecca stopping on the very doorstep of Masjid al-Haram, the Great Mosque.
Here are some pictures of the 7pm prayers inside, showing the @HolyKaaba. When it rains the rain is collected on the top of the Kaaba and it flows out through the spout like thing you can see in the top right image.

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More from @althecat

Mar 29
This is an interesting line of questioning here from Journalist @samhusseini which perhaps points to the substantive legal sophistry underlying the U.S. position on Gaza, in particular wrt the legality of wholesale slaughter y Israel of Gaza’s civilian population with U.S. supplied weapons .

@samhusseini tries to get answer from @StateDept’s Matthew Miller
(again) , he has been seeking an unambiguous answer repeatedly on this question as to « whether the U.S. govt accepts that the 4th Geneva Convention rules apply in the Gaza Conflict.
Meanwhile the rule of international law seems to be catching up on the Israeli-US « axis of sophistry » as we can see here in an new additional ICJ ruling on the Gaza Genocide complaint which coincides with the passage of a binding UNSC Resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in the conflict.
The most effective « Canary in the coal mine » in this drama from well before its initiation has been Francesca Albanese @FranceskAlbs.

Listen to her now.

Why? Because this crisis now stands on a knife edge. A window of hope for peace is now a little ajar, thanks to the combined weight of the UNSC ceasefire resolution and the progressing ICJ proceeding.

Albanese’s commitment, determination and enlightened investigation of the « Gaza War Palestine File » is peerless.

Her work began long before October 7th and this current obscene assault on the UN Charter, the rule of law and the « rules based order » which now engulfs the entire globe 🌍 in it’s implications.

This war, and Netanyahu’s impending attack on a concentrated starving population of well over 1 million souls is unprecedented, in its illegality as well as its possible consequences.

The entire world 🌍 is watching and praying and chanting and making offerings for peace. A peace that one man, an indicted financial and political criminal as well as a war criminal under investigation by the ICC over his role in both the settlements & the Great March of Return.

Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
An interesting report on Egypt 🇪🇬 ‘s response/practice when it comes to the shifting sands in international financial trading as a result of BRICS and the rise in the importance of the Yuan in particular for settling trade transactions.

At a practical level nations anticipating a loss in US dollar liquidity are increasingly hedging their bets on trade financing and broadening the quantity of trade in currencies other than the USD.

At a macro global level there is a high level of risk associated with these changes, principally because of the astronomical amount of US debt and deposits denominated in the USD.

The report shows that Egypt 🇪🇬 - a close U.S. ally is simultaneously seeking to be pragmatic about the threat this poses to its own economy by this expanding phenomena.

I have long considered that this « great unwinding » of the USD is the greatest threat to international economic conditions of my lifetime. I expect central bankers are having conniptions all over the planet at the moment.

Made in Egypt, sold in dollars goo.gl
Here is the original report I am referring to here. (See Quoted tweet).

What is happening now in global finance dwarfs the GFC of 2008 and its predecessor crises, the Asian Flue in the late 29th Century and the Dot Com Crash of the early 2000s.

The US Federal Reserve played a critical role in righting the great ship of global finance in those cases by providing liquidity. It is unclear whether they will be either willing or able to do so in the coming crises. Europe and China together need to consider how they can cooperate to address this coming crisis.

Critically the causes of this crisis are different and the War in Gaza is extremely important in relation to concerns about the Dollar and is driving the hoarding of USD liquidity by the super rich which is most probably one of the drivers of what is happening here.
P.S. India 🇮🇳 and OPEC likely also have an important role to play in addressing this coming crisis.

The simple truth is that USD Hegemony is unravelling and the impact of this is and will continue to be extremely destabilising globally in a manner unprecedented in the post WWII era.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 8
Lots of People have been raving to me about this amazing piece from @JohnJCampbell in the early summer. Just read it and OMG! Is it good or what.

NZ’s politics as we begin 2024 are febrile in a manner significantly beyond anything I have ever seen thanks to the bonkers agenda set out by the coalition govt that should not have been allowed to happen.

If you haven’t read this yet do so.1news.co.nz/2023/12/30/joh…
Justifiably the bit in the piece on former pm, Labour Leader @chrishipkins is excoriating, albeit in the relatively understated personal rhetorical tone in which @JohnJCampbell has achieved mastery.

“Labour’s vote almost halved in three years and their leader is talking about “vibe”.
“People don’t vote on a left-right continuum. They vote on the vibe of the campaign”, Chris Hipkins declared.
I’m not suggesting a hair shirt – Labour should be taking stock not doing penance. But some acknowledgement that they arrived at an election campaign without an actual campaign, might be useful.
If you’re having a sausage sizzle and you don’t have any sausages, that’s not a vibe issue. It’s that the central ingredient isn’t there.
Audrey Young asked Chris Hipkins what sort of Leader of the Opposition he wants to be. He talked about “highlighting how we would do things differently, and charting a different course”, which echoes David Lange’s belief that if you want to be elected you have to look like a government in waiting.
But then Chris Hipkins said, “you won’t see much of that in the first few months, because we need to take stock and we need to the opportunity to reflect and refresh.”
Good God. The first few months? (Is Labour on sabbatical?) By that stage the Government will be insisting that everyone called Wiremu change their name to William.”
Although it’s still early 2024 - and therefore not yet the time for such things - at least not for the political caucuses in NZ most of whom are at the beach most probably - it’s past time for a debate over @nzlabour Party leadership to begin imo. Chris Hipkins cannot remain in his leadership position. This is untenable and blocks the kind of cross party thinking/alliance on the left that is needed.

This far right extremist govt did not need to happen - a TPM/Green/Labour/NZF coalition would have had a majority of 7 - but @ChrisHipkins unilaterally (in another captains call) blocked this.

Had the left contested this post election by engaging with NZ First in discussions the divisive policy trajectory we are currently on might have been at least softened if not averted. A wide ranging public debate over the direction of NZ’s next Govt would have taken place and some of the extremism present in what we now see would have been watered down.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23, 2023
GAZA CHRISTMAS CARTOON THREAD:

Martin Rowson @Guardian on Christmas in Gaza – cartoon

THREAD theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
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2.
Christmas Gaza- Times of India
#GazaChristmas timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cartoons/line-…
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3.
Cartoon Movement - Christmas in Gaza
Many More At The Link >> cartoonmovement.com/cartoon/christ…



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Read 16 tweets
Dec 13, 2023
#COP @UNFCCC Exec Sec Simon Stiell is about to make a brief statement outside the Plenary and take questions from media.
Part 1
Part 2
Read 8 tweets

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