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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jun 19, 2021 • 21 tweets • 23 min read • Read on X
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See four satellite images taken today of major water transport events from @NASA Modis below.
1. Monsoon winds leaving India
2. Monsoon winds arriving Africa
3. Closeup of the #HornOfAfrica
4. The latest WMA plume.

Today's #Africa and #Middle East rainfall forecasts follow.
Two views of today's heavy rainfall in the Nile Basin and along the Red Sea Coast.
A big picture view from the Atlantic to the Bay of Bengal. It is extraordinary how long the Leviathan storm has been stationary in the middle of the picture near the Black Sea. It started in late May!
The even bigger picture:

In the latest #EuropeBigWet update I discuss the global perspective. It appears now that the entire Northern Hemisphere has unusually high levels of atmospheric moisture this year.
Today's North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts for June 19th.
48-Hour North Africa/Sahara ainfall forecasts from four models, this time including the ECMWF.
A satellite image of today's rains in the Ethiopian Highlands which are as strong as they have ever been so far this year. Rains are also strong over the Tigray region today.

These rains feed the Abbay river and provide the majority of water to the Nile's flow each year.
10-Day rainfall (+1 12-day) forecasts for June 19th of the #HornOfAfrica including, #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan

Rains are currently expected to be so heavy this year they will limit the amount of filling possible for the #GERD.
48 hour forecasts for June 18th (today and tomorrow) for the #HornOfAfrica. Including #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

#GERD
Today's #ArabianStorms at Sunset.
Today we have several new #ArabianStorms videos from @Arab_Storms The first from #KSA Saudi Arabia.
Oman...
Torrential rains in the Jazan mountains #SaudiArabia.
And finally, glimpses of a road-trip on a wet motorway in the #UAE United Arab Emirates.
10-Day June 19th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
48 Hour June 19th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم
And finally, June 18th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

Rainfall on the Arabian Peninsula looks set to continue.

[Note: Several long range forecasts now show rainfall on the Southern Yemen Coast.]

الله أعلم
As we are now keeping a close eye on the monsoon winds here are two sets of side by side comparisons in PWAT (GFS and ECMWF) for the source area over India for today and midnight Friday next week.
The other factor in the strength and direction of the East Africa Monsoon transport wind. Again two sets of side by side comparison from GFS and ECMWF. They show today and next Friday at midnight.
In these forecasts we see:
1. An increase in the strength of the source PWAT moisture.
&
2. Increasing strength and better directionality in the transport winds.
We shall see what happens :)

By then we should also have the first democratically elected Government in Ethiopia, elected in a freely contested election, albeit one being held under somewhat complicated circumstances.

/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 12
There is a good way and less good but possibly more impactful way for the War in Gaza to be brought to an end.

The good way is for it to end immediately which requires Netanyahu to be removed from office. Only Joe Biden can do this.

The less good but possibly more impactful way to end the war is for it to be ended by a real “Rules Based Order”.
I.E. according to International Law.

- The United Nations Charter
- THE UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS
- the ICJ - International Court of Justice
- the UNHRC & OHCHR
- The Geneva Convention
- The Rome Statute - International Criminal Court
- The Treaty of Rome - Genocide Convention
- The Special Rapporteurs for Israel of which their are several including @FrancescaAlbs
- The UNGA - United Nations General Assembly
- The UNSC - United Nations Security Council

All have important legal roles addressing issues related the wars in Gaza & Lebanon
The reason a legal resolution of this issue is preferable is that it would create legal precedent on the issue of who is responsible legally for preventing war and for delivering peace and security for humanity.

Then when something like this happens again it can be stopped in the same way.

And absent a legal basis for ending this war being clearly established, the absence itself of such a ruling will create a notion that this conduct is acceptable.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 30
As we enter a moment of reflection following the death of Nasrallah, the impetus of the peace effort to resolve this crisis has now moved to the Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The second major player in this new phase of this conflict resolution issue is the United Nations, which is - thanks to this year old war against mostly civilians - now facing an unprecedented crisis.

A crisis in global confidence.

It is apparent to anyone or nation- who has eyes to see or ears to listen - clear that the U.N. System has completely failed. And as a result the UN System itself is now on trial.

In other words. The Post WWII Western Nation dominated « Rules Based Order » is now itself on trial in the global court of public opinion.

In Gaza, and Lebanon, and now in New York it has very clearly failed.
(/1 of several) VIDEO THREAD:

Why does the Israel lobby still exist? with Ilan Pappé via @YouTube

History - this @ Electronic Intifada interview with preeminent 20th and 21st Century Israeli Conflics Historian Ilan Pappé is 2 months old , but it remains super relevant as a starting point. Patience is required but it is well worth it.

It focuses on the role of the Israeli Lobbies, particularly in the UK and the U.S. and includes specific exemplar discussions of on
- Senator Fullbright vs the U.S. Israel Lobby I.e. AIPAC
- Jeremy Corbyn vs The UK Israel Lobby (2017 to 2019)
(/2) The Looming Catastrophe in the Middle East (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Interview.

Gideon Levy’s discussion here is contemporaneous and also based on a new book. His prognosis of the corrupt state of Israeli politics and the international response is not at all positive.

via @YouTube
Read 21 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 20
Interesting clear eyed commentary as always from Mearshiemer.

Following the Israeli’s latest escalation the Israelis are now in a stalemate situation.

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Is Israel on the Brink? via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/juNa3vgXI…
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.

If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.

But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.

Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.

And this is what the American Administration also wants.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 19
So Iran now says there will be a joint response to the Lebanon situation from the « Axis of Resistance »

It sounds however like this will not be overly escalatory in order to avoid an all out war.

🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.

The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 17
The 538 poll of polls is a complete disaster for the GOP at this point.

Biden’s desire for U.S. Supreme Court reform under Kamala is now a theoretical possibility. Previously it was a pipe dream.



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1/2

National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)

note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.

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2/2

And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.

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Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 11
Went looking at @FoxNews to see how they were coping with the shocking fail by Trump last night.

The show today has the vibes of a flag hugging wake.

This is far from surprising as the 9/11 commemorations are the backdrop of the day. But what’s surprising is how little Fox has.

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But if @JDVance thinks dissing @taylorswift13 is going to help the GOP he’s being a bit daft.

I look forward to this becoming a meme given that « childless cat ladies » is probably what he is best known for. npr.org/2024/07/29/nx-…
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@JDVance @taylorswift13 Sort of akin to punching yourself figuratively in the face. But it should get him attention - which is probably his calculus.
Read 6 tweets

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