I read the title & thought #US was just playing fool.Then I watched @CNN asking abt "#Putin's motives for invading #Ukraine" & heard the answers such as "further dispution of #NATO" & "..constantly testing the West".
I know see why the "blind spot"
edition.cnn.com/2021/11/15/pol…
Seriously thou, there're some Russia experts in #Washington who read #Russia well. There're not many but enought to draw on their expetise to make accurate policies. The intel "blind spot" isn't cuz of lack of info or access to #Putin's closed circle...
..It's abt political will to correct the course of action,resists lobbysts & political inertia.
There was no lack of intel on #Afghanistan - thou assessments divereged.There's no lack of intel on RUS,either understanding of why Putin may be inclined to use force...
Ask any @CIA Russia desk analyst,they'll tell you '#Ukraine in NATO' is a redline no Russian president would tolerate (except if Khodorkovsky was president).Things get serious, bad time to play dumb.
PS If there's indeed "the blind spot" - ? is what billion $ budget wasted on?

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More from @m_suchkov

20 Nov
Good piece by @scharap on #US - #Russia -#Ukraine puzzle. Short THREAD with my own reflections on Sam's thoughts.
1/ Charap's reasoning is most realist & reasonable of other proposals coming from Washington these days on how to contain & deter #Russia over #Ukraine. Perhaps,RU does seek to change status-quo but this,as many in #Moscow see it,exactly what #US has sought to do in last 6+ years
2/ In any case, what @scharap proposes seems to be the best option in the given situation - avoiding a major war should be the focus. Containing RUS is much needed from #US standpoint, but this policy too has its own limits & #Putin made it clear the limit been reached.
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
The problem is not that #Putin directs #Lukashenka's actions - he does not. The problem is that #Belarus for #Russia is transforming into what #DPRK is for #China. But this is Russia's problem, not #EU's.
The problem for #EU is it has long outsourced decision-making on key issues in regions of strategic importance for Europe to #US (which,in turn,falls prey to US domestic politics).
EU won't recognise it. Instead,it keeps looking for "#Putin factor" in every new challenge it faces
The lesson for others to learn is that turning states into failed entities has long term consequences. Lukashenka weaponizing migrants-wrong.
Europeans refusing to face consequences of their own policies (Libya, Afghanistan, Syria) - the migrants ARE exactly that - irresponsible.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
This year #Russia's flagship conference - annual meeting of the @valdaitweets in #Sochi - features Foreign Minister Lavrov,#Moscow's mayor Sobyanin,former #Afghanistan president Karzai &,possibly,#Putin himself.The place is amazing & the venue is intellectually rich. Stay tuned. ImageImageImage
Day 2 at @valdaitweets conference.
@mfa_russia Sergey Lavrov speaks.
Kicks off by detailing #Russia's position on ceasing contacts with @NATO, argues the problems been piling up, #NATO was long sabotaging & rejecting many of #Moscow initiatives Image
Here's @mfa_russia full statement regarding
response measures to #NATO over diplomatic missions
mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…
Read 6 tweets
30 Mar
#Russia published its annual Foreign Policy Review, a 66 page document that highlights key events and issues in RUS foreign policy and diplomatic activity in 2020. Full text here (in RUS): mid.ru/ru/activity/re…
A brief summary of relations w/ #US in this SHORT THREAD
1. Relations w/ #US & #Canada discussed on 1.5 pages. The FP review says "tensions w/ US continued to build up becuase of multifaceted American efforts to contain #Russia. Interaction was limited and ad hoc."
2. In 2020, Presidents (#Putin & #Trump) spoke on the phone 8 times, Foreign ministers spoke on the phone 6 times + 1 meeting @MunSecConf. Security Councils of #US & #Russia "maintained contacts". In April, Russia sent "humanitarian medical aid" to US, US sent to RUS ventilators.
Read 8 tweets
18 Mar
⚡Putin responded to @POTUS remarks over #Russia/n president being a "killer" & #Moscow's meddling in #US election by saying he "wishes him good health"
#Putin added: "In childhood we were playing in the yard, and when we argued with each other, we used to say: "Whoever calls his name is called that." And this is no coincidence, this is not just a childish saying and joke. The meaning is very deep in this, psychological.”
Kudos to @KatieChe_ for the updates and the translation, she's been on top on this story
Read 9 tweets
13 Mar
#Russia, #US,and the fight over #SputnikV
Short THREAD
#Putin made interesting comments that are important to understand how #Russia reads the situation with promotion of #vaccines
1. #Putin: "Global market for #COVID19 vaccines is worth $100 billion. We see how competitors of our producers behave: they enter a country [that is in need for vaccines],sell a small batch of vaccines on a discounted price but condition the sale with that...
2. "...the country will only purchase that vaccine from that producer in the future. So, there’s a real fight for the markets".
Read 11 tweets

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