Thread by @m_suchkov

Good piece by @scharap on #US - #Russia -#Ukraine puzzle. Short THREAD with my own reflections on Sam's thoughts.

https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1461900383887007745

1/ Charap's reasoning is most realist & reasonable of other proposals coming from Washington these days on how to contain & deter #Russia over #Ukraine. Perhaps,RU does seek to change status-quo but this,as many in #Moscow see it,exactly what #US has sought to do in last 6+ years

2/ In any case, what @scharap proposes seems to be the best option in the given situation - avoiding a major war should be the focus. Containing RUS is much needed from #US standpoint, but this policy too has its own limits & #Putin made it clear the limit been reached.

3/ Military & political support to #Kiev emboldens #Ukraines authorities to act in #Saakashvili's style recklesness. Top it off w/ the silly resolution in #US Congress to thwart #Putin's presidency & look at it from #Kremlin's lens - how should it read US policy toward #Russia?

4/ Whether what Sam Charap proposes will be listened to @WhiteHouse or will other, more bellicose voices dominate the situation room at a critical moment? Modern #US history suggests Americans like steppingon the same rake atleast as often as Russians do..

5/ ...if that's the case now - too bad.
@POTUS, however, despite all the criticism shown he's willing to correct mistakes of past aministrations, incl. @BarackObama, & take reputation blows over it.
#Biden can't care less about either #Ukraine or #Russia & that's okay. But...

6/ ..he seems to care about #US standing in the world in the wake of confrontation w/ #China. A major war in #Ukraine would keep US attention & ressources in Europe for a long while, Russia will emerge as a bigger & more systemic problem.

7/ Getting bogged down in yet another crisis because of another semi-failed state (that is #Ukraine of today) won't turn #US to 'the best practices of the past' that its elites want,rather to a crisis from which it will be difficult to get out into the "bright future".

8/ In anticipation of trolls & criticism to flood this thread - my bottom line: #Ukraine needs to take Minsk agreements seriously. #Russia needs to weigh in possible risks seriously. #US needs to take Russia's security concerns seriously & tame #Kiev's gamble.