"Russian President Vladimir Putin is ‘undeterred’ not from plans to invade Donbass no less other parts of Ukraine but because he has no such plans. He is using military pressure to solve two problems and if that proves a bridge too far than just one of them."
"Moscow’s...military presence near #Ukraine has twisted...American & Ukrainian arms to join... in a two-tier conflict resolution process...to draw Washington into the Minsk ‘Normandy 4 process’...and get it to negotiate...on security in eastern Europe & western Eurasia."
"#Putin has garnered the West’s acknowledgement that Wstrn arms deployments in the region pose a threat to Russia and, since Russian deployments on its side of the border...pose a threat to NATO mbr, it has agreed to talks on #NATO conventional and...nuclear forces in the region"
"Moscow will not succeed in getting #NATO to push for...(an) end to NATO expansion...the threat of war will remain, intensified each time the West broaches...any other countries’ mbrship in NATO. Hwvr, it can achieve agreements on reduced NATO deployments to eastern...mbr-states"
"...a wiser West might have pursued a gradual process of bringing Russia into the alliance in return for democratization and trade agreements, but...NATO expansion & color revos revived Russia’s...vigilance...agst W meddling & military threats and drove (it) into China’s embrace"
"The lower tier talks with Kiev may produce some or no results at all. Putin succeeded in getting Volodomyr Zelenskiy to return to talks with Moscow...(However) Kiev-Donbass direct talks...pose grave risks for Zelenskiy..."
"Should a date be set and Kiev fails to begin talks, Zelenskiy and Kiev will be discredited. If representatives of Kiev do talk directly with the separatists...Kiev’s nationalists, ultra-nationalists, and neo-fascists could rise up, even violently against Zelenskiy"
"UDA leader & advisor to the Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces...(has men who) took part in the 20 Feb 2014 snipers’ massacre, killing police and demonstrators...and organized the May 2014 Odessa pogrom burning alive & massacring some 45 peaceful anti-Maidan picketers"
"Neofascist have promised to overthrow Zelenskiy should he comply with Minsk. It cannot be ruled out that Putin has chosen now to press all these issues precisely because Zelenskiy is weak... political upheaval (could) bring to power a coalition perhaps more amenable to...Moscow"
"The West pushed #Ukraine over the edge in 2014 and threw down the gauntlet to Moscow when it backed the Maidan revolt made on the blood of police and demonstrators spilled by the Maidan’s neofascist wing. Ukraine has not recovered, and a new cold war is sparked."
Gordon Hahn is back with a follow up to his excellent analysis on '#Putin's coercive diplomacy': a must to understand what,s going on in #Ukraine. gordonhahn.com/2022/02/24/coe…
"#Putin has kicked over the chess board again in the face of Western and Ukrainian intransigence. Seven years after the Minsk 2 accords were signed, #Ukraine has failed and shown no desire to fulfill its obligations in regard to the breakaway #Donbass regions"
"Three decades after the West promised not to expand #NATO and “inch” beyond reunited Germany, NATO was on #Russia’s doorstep, preparing to surround the entire house."
"Putin decided to act and in doing so overreacted...As I have predicted for decades #NATO expansion would lead to war with the West–that war is here. For now, the West chooses to fight the war through its Ukrainian proxy force."
"What Putin intends to do then is extremely difficult to assess...His coercive diplomacy was met with Kiev’s escalation of attacks on the DNR/LNR. In such circumstances, Putin punches back on an order exceeding several times the hit he takes from his opponent."
"How We Got Here": 1/
(NATO expansion despite promises not to expand on Russia's doorstep.)
"NATO bombing of #Serbia without a UN mandate"
"#Kosovo’s independence in violation of UN Res1244 guaranteeing... #Serbia’s territorial integrity"
"Support for unstable Saakashvili"
(NATO expansion despite promises not to expand on Russia's doorstep.)
"NATO bombing of #Serbia without a UN mandate"
"#Kosovo’s independence in violation of UN Res1244 guaranteeing... #Serbia’s territorial integrity"
"Support for unstable Saakashvili"
"How We Got Here": 2/
"Massive USG funding to opposition & self-declared rev elements in #Ukraine against...Yanukovych in violation of...OSCE (clauses)
"#NATO progs & military training for Ukraine’s AF & repeated NATO resolutions declaring Ukraine & Georgia will...be NATO mbrs"
"Massive USG funding to opposition & self-declared rev elements in #Ukraine against...Yanukovych in violation of...OSCE (clauses)
"#NATO progs & military training for Ukraine’s AF & repeated NATO resolutions declaring Ukraine & Georgia will...be NATO mbrs"
"How We Got here": 3/
"EU offers Assoc. Agreement with clauses on mil coop to prepare Kiev for integration..."
"Russia offers Yanukovych massive loan to convince him not to sign the Agreement...Nov 2013"
"#Russia offers talks on Ukraine... #EU rejects the offer"
"EU offers Assoc. Agreement with clauses on mil coop to prepare Kiev for integration..."
"Russia offers Yanukovych massive loan to convince him not to sign the Agreement...Nov 2013"
"#Russia offers talks on Ukraine... #EU rejects the offer"
"How We Got Here": 4/
"Nov2013 – #Maidan demonstrations begin"
"#Maidan protestors beaten but also fake attacks on themselves"
"Radical ultranationalist & neofascists...infiltrate Maidan...Right Sector is founded...by svrl small neofascist grps.The protests begin to get violent"
"Nov2013 – #Maidan demonstrations begin"
"#Maidan protestors beaten but also fake attacks on themselves"
"Radical ultranationalist & neofascists...infiltrate Maidan...Right Sector is founded...by svrl small neofascist grps.The protests begin to get violent"
"How We Got Here": 5/
"Feb 20, 2014 – #Ukraine oppo & Yanukovych sign agreement sponsored by Russia, Germany & France...but neofascist-led violent false flag snipers’ operation leads to the illegal overthrow of Yanukovych....a fact covered up now for over 8yrs by the West & Kiev"
"Feb 20, 2014 – #Ukraine oppo & Yanukovych sign agreement sponsored by Russia, Germany & France...but neofascist-led violent false flag snipers’ operation leads to the illegal overthrow of Yanukovych....a fact covered up now for over 8yrs by the West & Kiev"
"How We Got here": 6/
"In late March (2014), #Crimea holds referendum... Russia annexes Crimea. Separatist forces in Donbass... begin seizing regional administration buildings on the Maidan model"
"Kiev refuses to negotiate with the rebels...and seeks to crush the rebellion"
"In late March (2014), #Crimea holds referendum... Russia annexes Crimea. Separatist forces in Donbass... begin seizing regional administration buildings on the Maidan model"
"Kiev refuses to negotiate with the rebels...and seeks to crush the rebellion"
"How We Got Here": 7/
"In mid-April (2014), Kiev declares an anti-terrorist operation against the rebels...The breakaway rebel DNR and LNR hold a referendum on independence, which is approved, but #Russia refuses to recognize the breakaway republics."
"In mid-April (2014), Kiev declares an anti-terrorist operation against the rebels...The breakaway rebel DNR and LNR hold a referendum on independence, which is approved, but #Russia refuses to recognize the breakaway republics."
"How We Got Here": 8/
"Ultranationalists and neofascists, led by Right Sector elements and Ukrainian Security Council Chairman Andrei Parubii, carry out a terrorist pogrom against anti-Maidan picketers in #Odessa, killing at least 50 by immolation and shooting on 2 May 2014."
"Ultranationalists and neofascists, led by Right Sector elements and Ukrainian Security Council Chairman Andrei Parubii, carry out a terrorist pogrom against anti-Maidan picketers in #Odessa, killing at least 50 by immolation and shooting on 2 May 2014."
"How We Got Here" 9/
"Russian forces intervene to save rebel forces from destruction, forcing the #Minsk1 ceasefire agreement"
"Minsk 1 breaks down; Russia saves rebel forces again in Jan-Feb2015 & a new Minsk agreement — #Minsk2 — is signed by Kiev, Moscow, Berlin and Paris"
"Russian forces intervene to save rebel forces from destruction, forcing the #Minsk1 ceasefire agreement"
"Minsk 1 breaks down; Russia saves rebel forces again in Jan-Feb2015 & a new Minsk agreement — #Minsk2 — is signed by Kiev, Moscow, Berlin and Paris"
"How We Got here": 10/
"civilians living in the DNR/LNR, the overwhelming majority of whom oppose the Feb 2014 putsch & Maidan regime have been subjected to 7yrs of...bombing, economic isolation & state ostracization. For 7yrs Kiev failed to fulfill its obligations under #Minsk2"
"civilians living in the DNR/LNR, the overwhelming majority of whom oppose the Feb 2014 putsch & Maidan regime have been subjected to 7yrs of...bombing, economic isolation & state ostracization. For 7yrs Kiev failed to fulfill its obligations under #Minsk2"
"How We Got here": 11/
"All of the #Maidan regime’s presidents have refused to negotiate with the DNR/LNR...For this reason #Putin had some cause to recognize (their) independence"
But Putin "would have been better off...amass a large military force as coercive diplomacy"
"All of the #Maidan regime’s presidents have refused to negotiate with the DNR/LNR...For this reason #Putin had some cause to recognize (their) independence"
But Putin "would have been better off...amass a large military force as coercive diplomacy"
How We Got Here: 12/
"Provoking #Putin: Putin...decided to press the interrelated NATO & Ukrainian issues beginning in Dec for svrl reasons: the weakness of the Biden regime & the great division within the American polity, divisions in Europe over how to respond to US decline"
"Provoking #Putin: Putin...decided to press the interrelated NATO & Ukrainian issues beginning in Dec for svrl reasons: the weakness of the Biden regime & the great division within the American polity, divisions in Europe over how to respond to US decline"
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
